The Originator for over 25 years in Pay Per Head

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 227: Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson 9/16/23 Prediction, Analysis, and Odds

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 227: Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson 9/16/23 – Prepare for an electrifying UFC Fight Night 227 showdown on September 16, 2023. The featherweight division is abuzz with anticipation as Fernando “El Valiente” Padilla faces off against Kyle “The Monster” Nelson. Whether you’re a casual viewer or a seasoned bettor, our comprehensive analysis will provide invaluable MMA betting picks to make well-informed wagers on this pulse-pounding bout. Here’s everything you need to know for a strategic bet on this high-stakes fight.


Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Game Info

When: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada, United States


Fernando Padilla Analysis

Fernando “El Valiente” Padilla is more than just a name in the UFC featherweight division; he’s a force to be reckoned with. With a record of 15 wins and only 4 losses, Padilla has displayed a level of dominance that is hard to ignore. Add his towering 6’1″ frame and a formidable 76-inch reach, and you’ve got an athlete who seems designed for combat sports success. Padilla’s striking statistics are nearly out of this world. He lands an astonishing 11.88 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable 68% accuracy. Whether it’s jaw-breaking hooks, meticulously aimed jabs, or debilitating leg kicks, Padilla’s striking game is nothing short of extraordinary.

However, his aggressive approach comes at a cost. He absorbs an unsettling 8.91 strikes per minute, coupled with a less-than-stellar 37% defensive rate. This indicates that while Padilla is a striking machine, his open style makes him susceptible to counterattacks. When it comes to grappling, Padilla is somewhat of an enigma, attempting zero takedowns per 15 minutes. However, his takedown defense stands at an immaculate 100%, as evidenced in his recent bout against Erosa where he nullified any grappling threats effectively.


Kyle Nelson Analysis

Kyle “The Monster” Nelson stands as a formidable opponent with a respectable 14-5-1 record. Though he doesn’t match Padilla’s physical attributes, standing at 5’11” with a 71-inch reach, he brings a multi-faceted skill set to the Octagon. Nelson averages 3.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. While these numbers may not rival Padilla’s, Nelson’s versatility allows him to be a genuine threat on his feet.

Nelson is more defensively sound than Padilla, boasting a 48% defense rate and absorbing only 4.52 strikes per minute. This is where Nelson truly shines. Averaging 1.37 takedowns every 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 22%, he’s adept at taking fights to the ground—a domain where Padilla is visibly less comfortable. His submission average of 0.8 and a 71% takedown defense rate further cement his wrestling capabilities. His recent win against Bilder provides ample evidence of his versatile fighting approach.


Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Stats

Padilla Nelson
Wins/Losses/Draws 15-4-0 14-5-1
Average Fight Time 1:41 10:55
Height 6′ 1″ 5′ 11″
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 76″ 71″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Strikes Landed per Min. 11.88 3.06
Striking Accuracy 68% 45%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 8.91 4.52
Defense 37% 48%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 0.00 1.37
Takedown Accuracy 0% 22%
Takedown Defense 100% 71%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.0 0.8


Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Free Pick

After examining both fighters’ stats and recent performances, it’s evident that this fight will be a classic showdown between a striker and a well-rounded fighter. While Nelson’s grappling and more balanced game provide him with alternative paths to victory, Padilla’s overwhelming striking power and reach give him a distinct advantage. Add to that Padilla’s 100% takedown defense, and it becomes increasingly likely that he can keep the fight in his preferred domain—on the feet.


Free Pick: Fernando Padilla -241

As the clock ticks down to UFC Fight Night 227, the air is thick with anticipation for the face-off between Fernando Padilla and Kyle Nelson. If Padilla can exploit his advantages effectively, he has an excellent chance to secure another win and elevate his already impressive record. But let’s not forget, the unpredictable nature of MMA means that anything can happen. Choose wisely, and may the MMA odds be ever in your favor.


Start your online gaming site with IDSCA

Try us for a week for free, and explore all the tools and services you need to start, run, and grow your online sports betting business.


Complete the signup form


Select template and
configure your site
thumb-sportsbook copy


Promote your site and
start collecting money
Freedom to bet from anywhere

We are here with you every step of the way

Every hour of every day, we will have experts standing by to help you with every step of your journey. From setup, to how to maximize your player's experience -- our team is here to help.


Exciting bets
Live Chat