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UFC 295 Betting Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall 11/11/2023

UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall 11/11/23 – On Saturday, the prestigious Madison Square Garden in New York will serve as the coliseum for UFC 295, featuring a tantalizing interim heavyweight title bout between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall. This event is a beacon for fight fans and a hotbed for MMA free picks as pundits and spectators alike assess the warriors stepping into the octagon. The encounter promises fireworks, with both fighters possessing impressive records and skill sets that have led them to this pinnacle in the heavyweight division. With the odds slightly tilting towards Aspinall, it is imperative to delve deeply into their past performances and statistical data to forge a prediction that is as precise as it is insightful.


Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Game Info

When: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 11:00 PM ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY


Sergei Pavlovich Analysis

Sergei Pavlovich enters the fray with an imposing record of 18-1-0, a testament to his efficacy inside the cage. His average fight time of a mere 2:23 minutes underscores a fighter with a penchant for rapid conclusions to his bouts, befitting of the heavyweight power he carries in his 6’3″, 257 lbs frame. With an 84″ reach and a southpaw stance, Pavlovich brings an unconventional angle of attack, complemented by a prolific striking rate of 8.72 strikes landed per minute at a 49% accuracy. His defensive measures showcase a 57% strike defense, coupled with a striking absorption rate of 4.33 per minute, indicating his willingness to exchange blows.

The grappling statistics paint a different picture; Pavlovich exhibits a focused stand-up game, evidenced by an average of 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and a non-existent submission rate. His takedown defense stands at 75%, a number that speaks to his ability to keep the fight on the feet, where he is most dangerous. His recent victory over Curtis Blaydes, a renowned wrestler, highlights his capability to neutralize grappling threats and assert his striking dominance.


Tom Aspinall Analysis

Tom Aspinall enters this title bout with a noteworthy 13-3-0 record. Towering at 6’5″ and weighing 256 lbs, he bears a reach disadvantage at 78″ but compensates with an orthodox stance and exceptional athleticism. Aspinall impresses with a striking landed per minute count of 7.65, demonstrating his high output and remarkable 66% striking accuracy. Perhaps more impressive is his defensive metric, with a striking defense at 65% and absorbing only 2.90 strikes per minute, showcasing his ability to mitigate damage while delivering his own.

In stark contrast to Pavlovich, Aspinall’s grappling is formidable; he boasts a staggering average of 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and has demonstrated a 100% takedown accuracy and defense in his UFC tenure. His submission average per 15 minutes sits at an imposing 1.9, illustrating a diverse skill set that threatens to end fights on the ground—a facet he leveraged in his win over Marcin Tybura.


Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Stats

Pavlovich Aspinall
Wins/Losses/Draws 18-1-0 13-3-0
Average Fight Time 2:23 2:19
Height 6′ 3″ 6′ 5″
Weight 257 lbs. 256 lbs.
Reach 84″ 78″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Strikes Landed per Min. 8.72 7.65
Striking Accuracy 49% 66%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 4.33 2.90
Defense 57% 65%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 0.00 3.70
Takedown Accuracy 0% 100%
Takedown Defense 75% 100%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.0 1.9


Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Betting Pick

After a comprehensive analysis, the scales tip slightly in favor of Tom Aspinall. Despite Pavlovich’s striking prowess and his ability to finish fights quickly, Aspinall’s balanced approach between striking and grappling makes him the more versatile fighter. Aspinall’s superior striking defense and high-level grappling acumen may prove pivotal in this matchup. With a moneyline of -121, the odds are close, but the edge goes to Aspinall for his ability to dictate where the fight takes place.


Free Pick: Tom Aspinall -121

As we edge closer to UFC 295, the excitement builds not just for the spectacle but for the strategic maneuvers each fighter will employ. Those keen on leveraging the best live betting opportunities will have dissected each competitor’s strengths and vulnerabilities. In a battle where every strike and takedown carries the weight of championship gold, Tom Aspinall stands out as the fighter with the requisite skills to adapt and conquer. With precision in striking and the threat of the takedown, he is the choice to claim victory in a contest that is sure to captivate the MMA world.


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