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UFC on ESPN 58 Betting Prediction: Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida 6/15/2024

UFC on ESPN 58 Betting Prediction: Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida 6/15/2024

As the UFC continues to captivate audiences worldwide, UFC on ESPN 58 brings an intriguing featherweight bout between Timmy “Twilight” Cuamba and Lucas Almeida. This match is not only pivotal for their careers but also a significant event for live betting sites, offering dynamic odds as the fight unfolds. Scheduled for Saturday, June 15, 2024, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, this bout promises to deliver excitement and action as both fighters look to bounce back from recent losses.


Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida Game Info

When: Saturday, June 15, 2024, at 7:00 PM ET
Where: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA


Timmy Cuamba Analysis

Light Heavyweight’s Timmy Cuamba mostly known as ‘Twilight’ has elongated his scores to 8 wins, 2 losses and no draws. Cuamba averages a fight time of 15 minutes implying the fact that he understands how to pace a fight due to his fighting style that tends to go for the long haul. His striking, which is not too forceful at 2.53 strikes per minute with 34% accuracy, is more measured and effective. These Cuamba grappling statistics represent a moderate level of performance; Cuamba is able to land approx 0.50 takedowns per 15 mins and Cuamba’s takedowns are 16% accurate. Effectively, with the takedown defense of 71%, it is evident that he has good ability in keeping the fight on the standing, and that may be greatly valuable when fighting against Almeida who has not managed to score a single takedown in the UFC. Cuamba was outpointed in his previous fight, Oki, and certain weaknesses were exposed in particular, concerning Cuamba’s ability to deal with pressure styled opponents which could impact the strategy of this fight.


Lucas Almeida Analysis

Lucas Almeida has a more impressive record compared to Cuamba with a record of 14-3-0. His selected fights are shorter as the average fight time is 9.12 minutes proving that he is an aggressive fighter. Almeida scores and connects a good average of (5. 05) significant strikes per minute and 47% contact accuracy but the negatives are, receiving (5. 32) strikes per minute. His defense rate of 45% could be a worry against Cuamba’s strategic striking. Almeida’s wrestler clinch work is rather lacking with no takedowns landed during the fight while the fight was mainly stand up. These weaknesses were seen recently when he was beaten by Fili, a tactical fighter capable of making use of the style. Thus, Almeida will have to modify his fighting tactics so that he can present maximum strikes on his rival, concurrently refining his defense.


Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida Stats

Cuamba Almeida 
Wins/Losses/Draws 8-2-0 14-3-0
Average Fight Time 15:00 9:04
Height 5′ 9″ 5′ 11″
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 71″ 71″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Strikes Landed per Min. 2.53 5.05
Striking Accuracy 34% 47%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 4.23 5.32
Defense 57% 45%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 0.50 0.00
Takedown Accuracy 16% 0%
Takedown Defense 71% 40%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.0 0.0


Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida Betting Picks

This matchup is poised as a classic striker versus striker bout, where both fighters will likely keep the fight standing, leveraging their orthodox stances. The betting odds favor Cuamba at -185, suggesting confidence in his ability to manage the fight’s pace against Almeida’s more aggressive, albeit less efficient, attack strategy. Almeida’s odds at +160 make him a tempting underdog, especially if he has refined his defensive skills.

In analyzing both fighters’ recent performances and stats, Cuamba’s superior defensive metrics and his ability to control the tempo make him the safer bet. However, Almeida’s high strike rate cannot be ignored, making him a dangerous opponent if he connects consistently. This fight could very well hinge on who can impose their strategy more effectively in the early rounds.


Free Pick: Timmy Cuamba -185

For UFC betting enthusiasts, Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida offers a compelling bout with significant implications for future rankings in the featherweight division. When considering UFC winning picks today, the safe strategy would be to lean towards Cuamba due to his defensive prowess and tactical acumen. However, Almeida’s potential for a high-volume attack provides an exciting prospect for those looking for a potentially lucrative underdog bet. As always, watching the fighters’ form leading up to the bout could provide critical insights into the final betting decisions.

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