Tennessee Titans (4-8) vs. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
The struggling 4-8 Tennessee Titans will face a steep challenge on Monday night football when they take on Tua Tagovailoa and the surging 9-3 Miami Dolphins. According to our football expert picks, the Dolphins should continue their push for an AFC East title.
The Miami Dolphins have a well-balanced offensive attack led by Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and running back Raheem Mostert. Defensively, Miami boasts one of the best ball-hawking secondaries in the NFL. They should be able to overwhelm the undermanned Titans roster.
Meanwhile, Tennessee Titans continues their downward spiral after star running back Derrick Henry injured his foot early this year. They’ve leaned heavily on journeyman Will Levis to lead the offense with middling results. The Titans do still play solid defense, but it likely won’t be enough to match points with Miami’s high-flying offense.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Game Info
|Monday, December 11, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET
|Hard Rock Stadium
|NFL Game Pass
Will Levis QB vs. Tua Tagovailoa QB
Will Levis was thrust into the starting role for the Titans after Ryan Tannehill suffered a season-ending injury. He has shown some flashes but struggled with consistency issues. In 6 starts, Levis has completed just 57.8% of his passes while throwing for 1266 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. While he possesses a strong arm, Levis has been plagued by accuracy problems. He has also dealt with inadequate pass protection at times, taking 19 sacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has enjoyed a remarkable breakout season in his third year under new head coach Mike McDaniel. He’s shown precision accuracy at all levels of the field while displaying quality decision making. Tagovailoa is completing a career-best 70.1% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. He’s already surpassed his previous career highs in passing yards (3457) and touchdowns (24) with still five games left to play. Tagovailoa has also cut down on the critical mistakes with one of the best touchdown to interception ratios (2.4) in the NFL.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Miami Dolphins Moneyline -650, Total Odds: 43.5
The betting odds heavily favor the Dolphins, with a spread of -11.5, indicating the expectations of a dominant performance against the Titans. The total set at 43.5 points suggests a moderately high-scoring game, aligning with the Dolphins’ offensive capabilities.
Tennessee Titans Betting Trends
The Titans have lost and failed to cover in 4 straight games since Henry’s injury. They are 1-4 against the spread overall in their last 5 contests. Tennessee has seen 12 of their last 16 games finish under the projected point total. With QB Levis under center, the Titans offense just hasn’t synced properly. Tennessee is averaging under 17 points per game over their current 4-game skid. The Titans have also gone 0-5 against the spread in their previous 5 road matchups.
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends
The red-hot Dolphins have covered the spread at an 11-4 clip this season, including 7 of their last 8 games. Miami is on a 3-game win streak both straight up and ATS. Impressively, Tagovailoa and the offense are averaging nearly 35 points per game at home this season. In addition, the total has gone under in 13 of Miami’s last 20 overall contests against the Titans franchise. With Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this trend seems likely to continue in Week 14. The Dolphins thrive as heavy favorites at Hard Rock Stadium, going 6-0 straight up in their last 6 home contests.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins 12/11/23 Betting Picks
Based on the analysis and trends, the Dolphins seem poised to continue their strong performance, especially at home. Their high-powered offense, led by Tagovailoa and Hill, should capitalize against the Titans’ defense.
When considering betting, the Dolphins’ -11.5 spread is aggressive but justifiable given their form. The total points at 43.5 could lean towards the OVER, given the Dolphins’ offensive prowess. Bettors should also explore top live betting options, focusing on prop bets related to key offensive players.
Free Pick and Prediction: Miami Dolphins 31, Tennessee Titans 17