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NFL Week 16 Betting Prediction: Raiders vs. Chiefs 12/25/2023

Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)

As the NFL season edges closer to its climax, the Week 16 clash between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is garnering significant attention. With the Raiders struggling to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Chiefs aiming to solidify their postseason positioning, this match-up is crucial. Fans and bettors alike are eagerly seeking NFL expert free picks to navigate this high-stakes encounter.

Though currently trailing in their standings, the Raiders have demonstrated an effective rushing and receiving game. Josh Jacobs has been an outstanding force for them with 805 rushing yards over 13 games; his ability to break through defenses has been key. Davante Adams remains an essential figure on offense with 968 receiving yards and five touchdowns; his rapport with quarterback Aidan O’Connell could prove pivotal against Kansas City’s defense.

Conversely, the Chiefs have also displayed impressive rushing and receiving prowess. Isiah Pacheco has proven himself as a force on offense with 779 rushing yards – providing a balanced approach – while wide receiver Rashee Rice boasts 754 receiving yards and seven touchdowns to provide Patrick Mahomes with reliable targets to target for passing plays. Their varied offensive attack presents Raiders defense with significant obstacles.


Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Info

When: Monday, December 25, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Stream: NFL Game Pass


Aidan O’Connell QB vs. Patrick Mahomes QB

Aidan O’Connell is in his first year as a starter after previously serving as a backup in Indianapolis. He has struggled with consistency this season, which is not surprising for a young signal caller on a rebuilding team. O’Connell has some talent, possessing adequate arm strength and functional mobility. However, he makes too many risky throws into coverage and has had issues with turnovers. Through 8 starts, he has 7 interceptions compared to just 8 touchdown passes. His 81.2 passer rating ranks near the bottom among current starters. Still, O’Connell has shown flashes of competency, using good ball placement and timing to sustain drives. He will likely need to manage the game without big mistakes for the Raiders to have a chance.

Patrick Mahomes remains head and shoulders above most of his peers. Mahomes conjures big plays from his magical right arm seemingly at will, unleashing no look and sidearm lasers into tight windows. He is equally dangerous throwing deep or checking down short to dynamic playmakers. Despite facing constant double teams and complex coverages focused on limiting him, Mahomes continues putting up video game numbers. He leads the league with 25 touchdown passes, averaging over 2 per game. Mahomes is the front runner for his career MVP award, directing the league’s best offense while carrying his team to double digit wins. If he gets comfortable, Mahomes is fully capable of dominating to the tune of 4-5 touchdowns.


NFL Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -450, Total Odds: 42

The current betting odds lean heavily towards the Chiefs, reflected in their -450 moneyline. The total odds set at 42 points suggest an expectation of a moderately high-scoring game. Bettors should consider these odds while acknowledging the Chiefs’ offensive prowess and the Raiders’ need for a resurgence.


Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends

The Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games, playing better than expected despite their losing record. They also have gone under the total in 9 of their last 12 matchups. However, they have struggled against KC, going 1-4 ATS and 0-6 straight up in their last 6 meetings. They are also on an 0-5 SU road losing streak.


Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

The red-hot Chiefs have gone 15-5 straight up in their last 20 games overall. They also have owned the Raiders at home, going 9-1 SU in their last 10 home matchups. The total has gone over in 6 of their last 7 meetings with Vegas. However, the under has hit in 5 of their last 5 home contests.


Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs 12/25/23 Betting Picks

As the game approaches, the Chiefs, with their robust offense and solid trends, appear to be the safer bet. The Raiders, despite their underdog status, could cover the spread, given their ATS record. However, the Chiefs’ overall performance and home-field advantage tip the scales in their favor.

In terms of the best online casino pick, the Chiefs to win seems like a sound choice. The over/under is trickier, but considering the offensive capabilities of both teams, leaning towards the over might be reasonable. Prop bets on individual player performances, especially for Mahomes and Jacobs, could offer additional betting intrigue.


Free Pick and Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 28, Las Vegas Raiders 17

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