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NFL Week 16 Betting Prediction: Patriots vs. Broncos 12/24/2023

New England Patriots (3-11) vs. Denver Broncos (7-7)

In a Week 16 NFL showdown, the struggling New England Patriots, with a record of 3-11, are set to face the Denver Broncos, who stand at an even 7-7. This prime-time matchup on Sunday, will be held at Empower Field at Mile High and broadcasted on NFLN. With both teams having contrasting seasons, this game poses a significant challenge for the Patriots and offers an opportunity for the Broncos to elevate their record. For those interested in daily NFL free picks, this game provides intriguing aspects to consider.

The Patriots offense has struggled this season. Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of few bright spots, rushing 156 attempts for 619 yards and four touchdowns at an average four yard per carry average over his tenure with them. Demario Douglas has shown potential by collecting 39 receptions for 443 yards but no touchdowns to his name; they may need someone with more playmaking ability in their passing game to further elevate it.

Conversely, the Denver Broncos have enjoyed more balanced offensive output. Russell Wilson’s veteran leadership at quarterback has provided stability while Javonte Williams’ steady contributions have fuelled Broncos offense; though not as noticeable on paper his contributions have been invaluable to fuelling it. Courtland Sutton stands out with 58 receptions totaling 770 yards and 10 touchdowns; an essential target for Wilson.


New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Game Info

When: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Stream: NFL Game Pass


Mac Jones QB vs. Russell Wilson QB

Mac Jones, quarterback for the Patriots, has had a challenging season. Through 11 contests, the young signal caller has tossed just 10 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. His 6.1 yards per pass attempt indicates a lack of downfield passing. Jones is also taking too many sacks, going down 22 times already this season. His lack of accuracy is evidenced by a mediocre 64.9% completion percentage. Jones’ poor decision making and inability to extend plays with his legs has greatly hindered New England’s offense. 

Russell Wilson has helped elevate Denver’s offense, although he has yet to regain his prior elite form. Early struggles with chemistry and pass protection resulted in some shaky outings, but recently Wilson has started to find his groove. Over the last several contests, he has cut back on costly turnovers while increasing his big play ability. The veteran quarterback has also shouldered the load during crunch time by leading key scoring drives late in games. Wilson’s 24 touchdown passes leads the league’s middle tier of quarterbacks and his 97.5 quarterback rating remains above average. 


NFL Odds/Point Spread: Denver Broncos -275, Total Odds: 34

The Broncos are favored to win, as reflected in the -275 moneyline and a spread of -6.5. The total set at 34 points suggests a low-scoring affair, in line with both teams’ trends of games going under.


New England Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots against the spread and straight up trends are extremely bleak. They have covered just 3 spreads all season and only won 3 total games. New England is 1-6 straight up in their last 7 contests highlighting how poorly this season has gone. When playing on the road against Denver specifically, the Patriots are an abysmal 5-15 straight up in their last 20 meetings. 


Denver Broncos Betting Trends

Denver’s betting trends paint a much more optimistic picture. They have covered spreads at a 50% clip on the season and won 6 of their last 8 games straight up. The Broncos are extremely tough to beat at home as well with a 15-5 straight up record versus the Patriots in their last 20 matchups in Denver. With New England’s offense scuffling, the under trend is also notable here as 5 of Denver’s last 6 games against AFC foes have gone under the total points line.


New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos 12/24/23 Betting Picks

Considering the trends and current form, the Broncos appear to be the safer pick. Their home-field advantage and Russell Wilson’s leadership give them an edge over the struggling Patriots.

For those looking at the best live betting website options, considering the Broncos to cover the spread seems like a sound choice. The low total suggests a defensive game, and betting on the under could be a wise move given both teams’ recent trends.


Free Pick and Prediction: Denver Broncos 20, New England Patriots 10

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