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NFL Week 18 Betting Prediction: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots 1/7/2024

New York Jets (6-10) vs. New England Patriots (4-12)

As the NFL regular season winds down, Week 18’s matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots has attracted widespread attention among both fans and bettors looking for insightful NFL Super Bowl picks today. Slated for Sunday at Gillette Stadium, it will pit 6-10 Jets against 4-12 Patriots; two squads seeking to end their difficult seasons on an upswing.

The Jets have shown considerable promise with their offense this year, particularly their rushing and receiving games. Breece Hall has been an effective force on the ground, racking up 186 attempts for 816 yards at an average 4.4 yards per rush average and scoring four touchdowns. Garrett Wilson, on the other hand, has excelled as a wide receiver by recording 93 catches for 1008 yards and three touchdowns with significant yards after catch (311) to help spur on their offense.

The Patriots, on the other hand, have struggled but also shown moments of brilliance. Led by Ezekiel Elliott’s 588 yards rushing on 171 attempts and an average 3.4 yards per rush average; DeMario Douglas has been their go-to target, gaining 548 receiving yards in 47 receptions with an 11.7 average yards per reception average to help create significant gains in their passing game.


New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Game Info

When: Sunday, January 7, 2024, at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium
Stream: NFL Game Pass


Trevor Siemian QB vs. Mac Jones QB

Trevor Siemian has struggled mightily since taking over as the Jets’ starting quarterback. In his 4 games as the starter, he’s completed just 58.6% of his passes and thrown 4 interceptions to only 2 touchdowns. His passer rating sits at a paltry 63.9. However, the Patriots defense presents an opportunity to finish the season strong. New England ranks just 22nd against the pass and has intercepted only 11 passes all year. If Siemian can avoid mistakes and take advantage of a porous Pats secondary, he could do enough to support New York’s strong running game. 

For Mac Jones, this game represents a chance at redemption after a highly disappointing sophomore season. Jones has taken a clear step backward across the board, with declines in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating, while nearly doubling his interception total from his rookie campaign. He seems to have lost confidence in the pocket and his connection with receivers has regressed all year long. However, the young quarterback has shown flashes of his form at times. Against a mediocre Jets pass defense ranked in the bottom five in opponent quarterback rating, Jones could close the season with his best performance in months. If he can recapture the accuracy and efficiency that made him one of the league’s most promising rookies, New England has a shot at winning their long-time rivalry matchup with New York. 


NFL Odds/Point Spread: New England Patriots -128, Total Odds: 30.5

The betting odds are slightly in favor of the Patriots with a -128 moneyline and a 1.5-point spread. The total odds are set at a modest 30.5, reflecting both teams’ offensive struggles and the expectation of a low-scoring game.


New York Jets Betting Trends

The Jets are 1-8 against the spread (ATS) over their last 9 games, consistently underperforming expectations during their 2-7 SU run. They have also gone 0-6 ATS over their last 6 matchups with the Patriots. However, the total has gone over in 4 of their last 6 outings.


New England Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots are an even worse 5-14-1 ATS over their last 20 games, routinely disappointing bettors during their 11-17 SU stretch. However, they have played under the total in 4 of their last 5 games against New York. They are also 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games against the Jets, though just 1-7 SU in Foxboro this season.


New York Jets vs. New England Patriots 1/7/24 Betting Picks

Considering the historical data and current form, the Patriots seem to have a slight edge, especially playing at home. The Jets will need to step up, particularly in their passing game, to counter the Patriots’ defense.

In terms of betting, the Patriots might be the safer pick, albeit not without risks given their overall season performance. Prop bets on individual player performances could be interesting, especially for rushing and receiving yards. The over/under bet is leaning towards the under, given both teams’ offensive challenges. Bettors should keep an eye on the top betting sites for any shifts in odds or significant updates.


Free Pick and Prediction: New England Patriots 16, New York Jets 12

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