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NCAAF Bowl Betting Prediction: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State 12/16/2023

New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)

The highly anticipated NCAAF matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs is set to take place on Saturday. This game, part of the Isleta New Mexico Bowl, features two formidable teams with impressive records: the Aggies at 10-4 and the Bulldogs at 8-4. Scheduled at the University Stadium with a 5:45 PM ET kickoff and airing on ESPN, this encounter promises to be a thrilling showdown and a potential NCAAF bowl winning pick.

New Mexico State Aggies have shown remarkable prowess this season on the field. Star Thomas, their dynamic running back, has been an instrumental player with 111 attempts, 643 rushing yards, and four touchdowns from his runs. Additionally, wide receiver Jonathan Brady’s 37 receptions for 613 receiving yards has proven his worth; his average reception distance of 16.6 yards puts the Aggies into advantageous positions time after time.

Fresno State Bulldogs boast their own arsenal. Running back Malik Sherrod has been an exceptional performer, amassing 152 attempts and 876 rushing yards over that span while scoring 9 touchdowns on those attempts. Erik Brooks, an integral member of Fresno State’s wide receiver corps with 55 receptions for 711 receiving yards will play an essential role in breaking through Aggies defense.


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Game Info

When: Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 5:45  PM ET
Where: University Stadium
Stream: Sofascore


Diego Pavia QB vs. Mikey Keene QB

Diego Pavia has put together an excellent season for the Aggies. He’s completing 61.6% of his passes for 2915 yards, 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. A true dual threat, he can make plays with his arm or legs. His quick decision making, accuracy in the short passing game, and willingness to take shots downfield make him difficult to defend. However, he has taken 20 sacks and will need to avoid negative plays.

Mikey Keene has delivered a strong campaign as Fresno’s signal caller. Completing 65.8% of his throws, he’s passed for 2596 yards, 21 touchdowns and 9 picks. While not much of a running threat, Keene operates the Bulldogs’ offense efficiently with sound decision making skills. He excels at finding the open man and allowing playmakers to pick up yards after the catch. But he has been sacked 19 times and will need solid pass protection.


NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: New Mexico State Aggies -175, Total Odds: 51

The current betting odds favor the New Mexico State Aggies, with a spread of -4 and a moneyline of -175. The total for the game is set at 51, indicating expectations of a moderately high-scoring game. These odds suggest a slight edge for the Aggies, but the game could swing either way, considering the strengths and recent performances of both teams.


New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends

The Aggies have been an excellent bet lately, covering the spread in 10 of their last 11 outings. They are also 8-1 straight up in this stretch, illustrating their ability to win games outright. In a positive sign for their offense, the over has hit in 4 of their previous 6 contests. When facing Fresno State specifically, New Mexico State has seen the under come through in 7 of the past 8 meetings between the schools.


Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have struggled against the number of late, failing to cover in 7 of their past 8 matchups. But they continue piling up victories, going 16-4 straight up in their last 20 games. The over has been a good play in Bulldog games recently, hitting in 4 of the team’s previous 6 outings. Against New Mexico State over the years, Fresno State owns a sterling 16-4 overall record while covering only 1 time in the last 7 head-to-head meetings.


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs 12/16/23 Betting Picks

Considering the stats and trends, this game is poised to be a closely contested battle. The Aggies, with their strong ATS record and robust defense, seem well-positioned to cover the spread. However, the Bulldogs’ resilience and ability to secure victories in tight games cannot be underestimated.

The better pick for this game appears to be the New Mexico State Aggies, primarily due to their recent ATS record and defensive capabilities. In terms of prop bets and over/under, the under might be a wise choice, considering both teams’ trends towards lower-scoring games. When it comes to the best live betting opportunities, keeping an eye on the dynamic play of both teams’ key players will be crucial.


Free Pick and Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies 28, Fresno State Bulldogs 24


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