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NCAAF Week 14 Betting Prediction New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23

New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) vs. Liberty Flames (12-0)

The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) take on the undefeated Liberty Flames (12-0) in Week 14 of the NCAAF season. With bowl eligibility and conference titles on the line, this Friday night showdown has major implications. Let’s break down the game and provide our top NCAAF winning pick.

The New Mexico State Aggies’ success starts with Pavia’s dual-threat abilities. He has terrorized defenses both through the air and on the ground this season, accounting for over 3,300 total yards and 31 touchdowns. Pavia excels at keeping plays alive with his legs, allowing his speedy receivers to get open downfield. However, he has been turnover-prone at times, something the Liberty defense will look to take advantage of with an aggressive pass rush. If Pavia can limit mistakes, the Aggies have the firepower to keep pace.

Liberty Flames fields one of the most efficient offenses in college football, led by Salter’s precision passing. He has thrown 29 touchdowns to just 5 picks while averaging a stellar 10.1 yards per attempt. Salter has an array of weapons at his disposal, including running back Quinton Cooley and receiver CJ Daniels. Cooley has racked up over 1,200 rushing yardsalready this year, while Daniels averages a whopping 20.8 yards per catch. With Liberty favored on their home turf, Salter & company will look to light up the scoreboard once again.


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Game Info

When: Friday, December 1, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
Where: Williams Stadium
Stream: Sofascore


Diego Pavia QB vs. Kaidon Salter QB

Pavia is having a career year for the Aggies. He has accounted for over 3,300 total yards and 31 touchdowns while completing 61.2% of his passes. Pavia excels at improvising and making plays with his legs when the pocket collapses. However, he has struggled with interceptions at times. The Flames defensive front will look to pressure Pavia into mistakes.

Meanwhile, Salter has been remarkably efficient for Liberty. He leads the nation in passer rating (179.2) behind 29 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions. Salter is lethal throwing deep but also makes smart decisions to take what the defense gives him. With Liberty favored by 10.5 points, Salter’s steady play could be the difference.


NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Liberty Flames -385, Total Odds: 55.5

Despite New Mexico State’s strong 10-3 record, the oddsmakers have installed Liberty as 10.5 point favorites. This line suggests the oddsmakers see clear separation between these two high-powered offenses. Expect a back-and-forth shootout, but for Liberty’s offense to pull away late. The over/under of 55.5 points seems reasonable.


New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends

New Mexico State has been defying the oddsmakers all season long by covering in 10 straight contests. They also play tighter defense than you’d expect from a squad averaging 30+ points. This is evidenced by 6 of their last 7 finishing under the total. However, Liberty has posed matchup problems recently for the Aggies. The Flames are riding a NCAA record 23-game home winning streak and have won 7 of the last 8 meetings outright against New Mexico State.


Liberty Flames Betting Trends

As for Liberty, momentum is fully in their favor entering this marquee matchup. The Flames are an incredible 10-0 straight up in their last 10 overall, while also covering in 9 of those. This efficient offensive attack has flown past totals in 5 of the previous 6. With the game being played at Liberty’s home stadium in front of a raucous crowd, expect the Flames’ conference dominance to continue against their Independent foes. They have won 10 of the past 14 outright versus Independent competition. 


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23 Betting Picks

As we approach this epic clash, the dynamics of both teams point towards a potentially close yet high-scoring affair. The Aggies’ resilience and the Flames’ offensive strength create a fascinating matchup. In considering the betting trends and team performances, this game promises excitement and potential upsets.

In conclusion, while the Liberty Flames appear as the stronger team, especially with their home advantage and undefeated record, the New Mexico State Aggies have the potential to cover the spread, making them a viable pick for bettors. For those interested in prop bets, looking at the quarterbacks’ passing yards or running backs’ rushing yards could be intriguing. Moreover, given both teams’ scoring trends, the over on total points seems a tempting choice. For enthusiasts looking to engage in this exciting matchup, the top online casino platforms offer various betting options to enhance the game-watching experience.


Free Pick and Prediction: Liberty Flames 41, New Mexico State Aggies 28


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