Miami Marlins (84-77) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
The MLB season is reaching its thrilling climax, and Wednesday night offers an enticing clash between the Miami Marlins, who currently stand at 84-77, and the Philadelphia Phillies, with an impressive 90-72 record. As we dive into this analysis, we’ll provide the latest MLB picks based on team stats, starting pitcher performance, betting odds, and current betting trends.
The Marlins have had a commendable season, registering a 0.259 batting average with 668 runs off 1427 hits. Their 166 home runs have certainly contributed to their success, paired with their decent on-base percentage of 0.317 and a slugging percentage of 0.405. Their pitching staff, led by the likes of Braxton Garrett, has managed an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.29.
On the other side, the Phillies have showcased their prowess with a 0.256 batting average, amassing a substantial 796 runs from 1417 hits. Their power-hitting ability is evident with a whopping 220 home runs this season, and their on-base percentage stands at 0.327 with a slugging percentage of 0.438. Their pitching statistics are slightly superior to the Marlins with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 1.24.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Info
|When:||Wednesday, October 4, 2023 at 8:08 PM ET|
|Where:||Citizens Bank Park|
Braxton Garrett (9-7 W-L, 3.66 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (12-9 W-L, 4.46 ERA)
Braxton Garrett has emerged as a reliable force for the Marlins throughout the season, recording a 9-7 win-loss record and a commendable 3.66 ERA. Over 159.2 innings on the mound, he’s conceded 154 hits but has struck back by fanning 156 batters, highlighting his prowess in controlling the opposition. Garrett’s consistency in delivery, paired with his knack for minimizing walks (only 29 this season), makes him indispensable for the Marlins as they aim for a victory.
On the other hand, Aaron Nola, the premier pitcher for the Phillies, has experienced some turbulence this season. However, his 12-9 win-loss record remains noteworthy. Even with an ERA of 4.46, slightly higher than Garrett’s, Nola’s contributions in pivotal matches for the Phillies can’t be understated. Pitching for 193.2 innings, he’s surrendered 178 hits while achieving an impressive tally of 202 strikeouts. His tendency to give away home runs, with a count of 32 this season, might be a potential weak spot the Marlins could capitalize on.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -153, Total Odds: 8
Analyzing the odds, the Phillies are slight favorites with a Moneyline of -153. However, with a total odds set at 8, it seems that bookies are expecting a relatively low-scoring affair, which aligns with both teams’ recent UNDER trends.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Marlins have recently shown a trend towards low-scoring games, with the total going UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games and 7 of their last 9 on the road. Furthermore, when playing in Philadelphia, the trend remains consistent with the total going UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games. Despite this, their 12-5 SU record against National League East Division teams and their October form (6-3 SU) indicates they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Phillies’ recent form is commendable, going 9-3 SU in their last 12 games. Their home record is impressive with 7 wins in their last 8 games. Like the Marlins, their games against Miami often go UNDER, with 4 of the last 5 home games against the Marlins seeing fewer runs. However, 4 of their last 6 October games have seen the total go OVER, hinting at a potential shift.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/04/23 Betting Picks
Considering both teams’ recent form and their head-to-head stats, this game promises to be a close contest. The Phillies have the slight edge, particularly with their home form. However, the Marlins cannot be counted out, especially considering their recent form against National League East Division teams.
For those browsing the best betting websites, our recommendation would be to go with the UNDER given the strong trends from both teams, and perhaps a slight lean towards the Phillies for the win given their strong home form.
Free Pick and Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4, Miami Marlins 2