Miami Dolphins (8-3) vs. Washington Commanders (4-8)
The red-hot Miami Dolphins travel to face the struggling Washington Commanders in an exciting inter-conference showdown this Sunday. Led by the dynamic passing duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins have won five straight games to vault themselves into playoff position at 8-3. Meanwhile, the inconsistent Commanders sit near the bottom of the NFC East at just 4-8. Our expert NFL picks see Miami as comfortable 6.5-point road favorites, but Washington has enough talent to keep this one close.
Powered by Tagovailoa’s precision passing and Hill’s explosive playmaking ability, the Dolphins boast the league’s #2 ranked total offense. Tagovailoa is completing nearly 70% of his throws for over 3100 yards and 22 touchdowns through just 11 games. Hill has already eclipsed 1300 receiving yards in his first season in Miami, hauling in 10 scores. The duo continues to build chemistry and the results speak for themselves – the Dolphins average nearly 400 yards of offense per game. Raheem Mostert provides capable support in the backfield, tallying over 750 rushing yards at a 5.2 yards per carry clip.
On the other side, it’s been an up-and-down year for Washington’s second-year signal caller Sam Howell. While he’s shown flashes with 18 touchdown passes, Howell is still very raw and prone to mistakes with 13 interceptions already. Workhorse back Brian Robinson Jr. racks up tough yards between the tackles but lacks breakaway speed. Top wideout Terry McLaurin is dynamic, yet lacks consistent production due to unreliable quarterback play and a stagnant offense. Washington ranks just 27th in yards per game and struggles to keep pace when forced to play catch up.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Game Info
|Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
|NFL Game Pass
Tua Tagovailoa QB vs. Sam Howell QB
The third-year signal caller Tagovailoa is enjoying a true breakout 2023 campaign. He ranks top five in completion percentage (69.8%), yards (3177), and touchdowns (22) while cutting down big mistakes with just 10 interceptions. Tagovailoa has developed uncanny chemistry with new top target Tyreek Hill, shredding defenses with precision intermediate and deep balls. He pilots an explosive Miami offense averaging nearly 400 yards and 25.5 points per contest. Tagovailoa’s accuracy and playmaking give the Dolphins a chance to outscore anyone.
Contrastingly, Howell is going through predictable rookie growing pains in his first year seeing significant action. While he flashes high-end arm talent, Howell tends to play recklessly loose with the football at times. His 13 interceptions are fifth most in the league, often putting Washington’s suspect defense in difficult positions. If Howell can limit mistakes and get Terry McLaurin more consistently involved, this offense can still put up points in bursts. But their 23.3 points per game ranks just 22nd overall. Howell’s inexperience and gunslinger mentality provide Miami’s opportunistic defense chances for game-changing turnovers.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Miami Dolphins -280, Total Odds: 48.5
Despite Washington playing at home, the surging Dolphins are still comfortable 6.5-point favorites. Miami has won five straight games while scoring over 30 points in each victory. Tagovailoa and the offense are locked in and can trade blows with anyone. While the inconsistent Commanders have upset potential at home, they’ve lost two straight while failing to top 20 points.
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends
Miami is an impressive 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 overall. They are also rolling winners of five straight games outright. While the Dolphins have struggled on the road at times this season, going just 3-8 straight up, they are facing a very beatable Washington group. Miami boasts a top five scoring offense, which travels well against the Commanders’ 26th ranked scoring defense allowing 24.5 points per contest.
Washington Commanders Betting Trends
Washington has gone over the projected point total in four of their last five games as their defense continues to hemorrhage points. They are allowing the fifth most passing yards per game at 257.5. The Commanders have dropped two straight games and face an uphill battle against the Dolphins’ explosive offense. One trend in Washington’s favor however is their success at home, covering six of their last seven when hosting Miami. They’ll need to flip their lackluster 1-5 ATS home record this season to keep things close.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders 12/3/23 Betting Picks
In analyzing both teams’ performances and betting trends, the Miami Dolphins appear to be the stronger side, especially given their explosive offense. However, the Commanders’ tendency to keep games low-scoring against AFC teams should not be overlooked. This matchup presents a classic offense vs. defense scenario, making it a compelling game for bettors.
When considering the best online casino options for this game, it’s advisable to look at the Dolphins to cover the spread, given their superior offensive capabilities. However, the total points market is trickier, with Miami’s high-scoring nature clashing against Washington’s defensive trends. Prop bets involving key players like Tagovailoa and Hill could also offer value, given their consistent performances.