Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) vs. New England Patriots (2-9)
The Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) and New England Patriots (2-9) face off this Sunday in an AFC matchup between two teams headed in very different directions. When considering NFL betting picks, the Chargers are 4.5-point road favorites, while the Patriots are significant home underdogs. The betting trends favor LA, but New England has won five straight home games against the Chargers. This shapes up as a key game for both clubs – the Chargers trying to stay in the crowded victory hunt, while the Patriots look to play spoiler and build some positive momentum toward next season.
The Los Angeles Chargers are putting up 24.6 points per contest. Herbert is fifth among quarterbacks with 2,609 passing yards and has thrown 19 touchdowns. His top target Keenan Allen returned recently from injury, a key addition for a passing attack that relies heavily on the short and intermediate game. Austin Ekeler leads the backfield with just 396 rushing yards and three scores, as the ground game has sputtered for most of the year.
The New England Patriots in scoring offense are just 17.5 points per game. Jones has taken a step back in year two, throwing 10 interceptions already after just 13 all last season. Backup Bailey Zappe has fared only marginally better during Jones’ injury absence. The running game behind Rhamondre Stevenson has delivered decent production but lacks explosiveness or consistency week-to-week.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Game Info
|Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
|NFL Game Pass
Justin Herbert QB vs. Mac Jones QB
Herbert is fifth in the NFL with 2,609 passing yards to go along with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s an aggressive downfield thrower capable of big plays, with top target Keenan Allen back from injury recently. If Herbert limits mistakes, the Chargers offense can score on any defense.
Jones has taken a step back in year two, ranking 25th in quarterback rating at 80.2. He’s been more turnover-prone with 10 interceptions already after throwing just 13 all last season. Jones lacks top-tier arm strength or scrambling ability, so he needs a strong ground game and stout defense, neither of which New England has provided this season.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -205, Total Odds: 42.5
Despite four straight losses, the Chargers are 4.5-point favorites on the road against the Patriots. The total is set at just 42.5, indicating the oddsmakers are expecting a relatively low-scoring defensive battle between these AFC foes.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends
The Chargers are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven contests, failing to cover in five straight games. The under has hit in eight of LA’s previous nine matchups as well. When facing New England specifically, the Chargers are 0-7 ATS over their last seven head-to-head meetings. The under is 6-3 in the last nine clashes between these clubs too.
New England Patriots Betting Trends
Much like their opponents, the Patriots have been unreliable against the number, posting a 1-7 ATS record over the past eight weeks. The under has cashed in eight of New England’s last 10 overall too. At home against the Chargers historically, the Patriots are 5-0 straight up in the previous five matchups, though just 1-4 ATS in those games.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots 12/3/23 Betting Picks
The Chargers are the right side here according to the betting trends and the teams’ current trajectories. New England is decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball and might have already packed it in for this lost season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles still has an outside shot at the playoffs if they can string some wins together in the final stretch.
Considering the matchup advantages with Herbert and Allen on offense for LA, back the Chargers laying the 4.5 points as one of the best NFL bets this week. The best sportsbooks have this spread up to -5 already, so grab the key number now while you can. The total is low, but with two quality defenses, the under 42.5 is also worth a play if you expect a grind-it-out type game.