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UFC 296 Betting Prediction: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington 12/16/2023

UFC 296 Betting Prediction: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington 12/16/2023 – The highly anticipated welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington headlines UFC 296 on December 16th, 2023. Taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, this main event pits the reigning champion Edwards against the controversial challenger Covington. With elite grappling skills and relentless pace, Covington poses a major threat to Edwards’ title. Utilizing the best live betting options and studying predictions are key components to placing the right bet. 


Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Game Info

When: Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA


Leon Edwards Analysis

Leon “Rocky” Edwards enters with an impressive 21-3 record and is currently on a 10-fight unbeaten streak. He possesses slick striking skills, landing 2.80 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy. His defense is also sound, avoiding 53% of strikes thrown his way. Edwards’ grappling game is solid, scoring takedowns at a clip of 1.26 per 15 minutes and stopping 69% of takedown attempts. In his last fight, Edwards shocked the world by knocking out dominant champion Usman in the final minute with a stunning head kick. This highlight-reel finish showcased Edwards’ pinpoint striking accuracy and power. He is an extremely well-rounded fighter with constantly improving overall skills. His footwork and head movement have grown leaps and bounds in recent bouts, allowing him to set up smooth combinations. Once primarily a counter striker, Edwards now intelligently mixes his offensive attacks to keep opponents guessing. His takedown defense has also shone against some of the division’s best wrestlers. Still, Edwards does leave openings at times, keeping his left hand low and backing straight up when pressured.


Colby Covington Analysis

Colby “Chaos” Covington is an elite wrestler with a 17-3 record. He lands strikes at an efficient 4.10 per minute, although with just 39% accuracy. Covington truly excels with his wrestling, recording 4.05 takedowns on average each 15 minutes and stuffing 72% of adversary takedown tries. His cardio is second-to-none in the division, evidenced by absurd striking totals. Covington will relentlessly shoot on opponents, often chaining takedowns together against the fence and mat. His top control is smothering as he prevents foes from mounting any effective offense. Once in control, Covington viciously unleashes ground strikes, averaging over 5 per minute. No welterweight has completed more total takedowns inside the Octagon over the past five years. While competent on the feet, he lacks true one-punch power at this level. But Covington’s pace and pressure are where he overwhelms adversaries. Coming off a dominant decision win over Masvidal, Covington taunted his foe throughout five rounds while setting a new UFC record for significant strikes. His cardio appeared endless in that bout as he continued attacking until the final horn. Riding a two-fight streak, Covington looks extremely sharp and focused coming into this title opportunity.


Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Stats

Edwards Covington
Wins/Losses/Draws 21-3-0 (1 NC) 17-3-0
Average Fight Time 16:24 16:34
Height 6′ 2″ 5′ 11″
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 74″ 72″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Strikes Landed per Min. 2.80 4.10
Striking Accuracy 53% 39%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 2.40 3.05
Defense 53% 55%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 1.26 4.05
Takedown Accuracy 33% 45%
Takedown Defense 69% 72%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.3 0.2


Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Betting Pick

Based on their performances, stats, and the current odds favoring Edwards at -140 against Covington’s +120, this fight presents a challenging but intriguing scenario. Edwards’ size, striking precision, and formidable takedown defense make him a strong contender. However, Covington’s relentless pressure, high takedown frequency, and slightly superior defensive stats cannot be overlooked.

After careful consideration, the pick for this bout is Leon Edwards. His ability to maintain distance with his striking, combined with his defensive grappling, positions him well to counter Covington’s pressure and secure victory in this high-stakes title fight.


Free Pick: Leon Edwards -140

In conclusion, the welterweight title bout at UFC 296 between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington is not just a test of physical prowess but a chess match of tactical intelligence. While both fighters possess the skills to claim victory, the analysis and UFC top picks lean towards Edwards, given his striking precision, defensive capabilities, and recent performance against top-level competition. This matchup, brimming with potential for explosive action and strategic depth, is a must-watch for UFC enthusiasts and sports bettors alike.

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