Indianapolis Colts (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-7)
As the Indianapolis Colts saddle up to face the New England Patriots at Deutsche Bank Park in an intriguing NFL Week 10 matchup, both teams find themselves at a crossroads. The Colts, sitting at a 4-5 record, are looking to claw their way back to .500, while the Patriots are eager to salvage their season after a disappointing 2-7 start. NFL free picks for this contest will hinge on a detailed analysis of both teams’ performances thus far, including their offensive strategies and defensive capabilities, set against the backdrop of a historical rivalry.
The Colts have shown some promise with their rushing attack led by Zack Moss, who has amassed 589 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, displaying a robust 4.7 yards per carry. This ground game potency could serve them well against a Patriots defense that has had its ups and downs. In the receiving department, Michael Pittman Jr. has emerged as the go-to target with 529 receiving yards, offering a consistent aerial threat for the Colts’ offense.
On the other side, the Patriots are looking to rectify their season and defy the odds. Despite their lackluster record, Mac Jones continues to show development at quarterback, throwing for 1,861 yards and 10 touchdowns. The running game, supported by Rhamondre Stevenson, has been less productive, which could be a concern against the Colts’ defensive units. Kendrick Bourne has been a bright spot in the receiving corps, proving his capability to make crucial plays with 406 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Game Info
|When:||Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 9:30 AM ET|
|Where:||Deutsche Bank Park|
|Stream:||NFL Game Pass|
Gardner Minshew QB vs. Mac Jones QB
For the Colts, Gardner Minshew has provided stability under center, though his statistics suggest room for improvement. Minshew has shown resilience, even as he’s absorbed 14 sacks, and his passer rating of 85 reflects his careful, albeit not explosive, command of the offense. His ability to connect with Pittman could be a deciding factor in breaking through the Patriots’ defense.
The Patriots’ Mac Jones has dealt with growing pains this season, evident in his 9 interceptions against 10 touchdowns. Yet, his completion percentage slightly edges Minshew’s, indicating a potential to maintain drives under pressure. Jones’ knack for overcoming adversity will be tested against a Colts defense that has been stout against the pass.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: New England Patriots -216, Total Odds: 40.5
The Patriots enter the game as 5-point favorites, which could be attributed to their historical dominance over the Colts and the fact that they’re playing at home. The over/under set at 40.5 suggests a lower-scoring affair, a nod to the defensive potential of both teams and their inconsistent offenses.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends
The Colts have an intriguing betting trend with the total going OVER in 11 of their last 15 games, signaling their capability to engage in high-scoring encounters. However, they have struggled to secure wins outright, going 5-15 in their last 20 games. Against the spread, the Colts are 2-6 in their last 8 games against New England, a trend that might concern bettors eyeing an upset.
New England Patriots Betting Trends
New England’s betting trends paint a picture of a team that has had trouble covering the spread, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games. Yet, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8, hinting at struggles to put points on the board. A trend worth noting is their 5-0 ATS streak when playing at home against Indianapolis, suggesting that Foxborough continues to be a challenging venue for the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11/12/23 Betting Picks
Considering the betting odds and trends, the Colts could potentially outperform expectations, especially if Minshew connects effectively with his receiving options. The Patriots, while favorites, will have to significantly improve on both sides of the ball to justify the spread in their favor.
Top betting sites will offer a range of prop bets and in-play options, allowing bettors to adjust as the game unfolds.
Free Pick and Prediction: New England Patriots 20, Indianapolis Colts 17