Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
The Cincinnati Bengals take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a Week 13 AFC showdown. The Jaguars have been one of the NFL’s most surprising teams this season behind an explosive offense, while the inconsistent Bengals look to stay in the AFC playoff hunt with a crucial road win on Monday Night Football. Our analysis has the Jaguars winning and covering the spread in this potential NFL winning pick.
The Bengals boast a top-10 passing attack led by Joe Burrow, who is averaging 230.9 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns. However, Cincinnati ranks just 24th in rushing offense, averaging 92.5 rushing yards per contest. Joe Mixon headlines the ground game, posting 60.5 rushing yards per game. While dynamic rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase has provided a spark with 11.7 yards per catch, the Bengals will need greater production in the run game against Jacksonville’s staunch rush defense allowing just 105.2 rushing yards per game.
On the other side, second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence guides a multifaceted Jaguars offense that ranks fifth in points per game (25.5) and eighth in total yards per game (367.6). Lawrence averages 238.2 passing yards per contest with 11 touchdowns. On the ground, running back Travis Etienne Jr. leads the team with 67 rushing yards per game. Jacksonville boasts additional playmakers like Christian Kirk, who averages 12.9 yards per reception as Lawrence’s top target. The Jaguars present a balanced attack that could exploit a middle-of-the-pack Bengals defense conceding 21.5 points per contest.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Info
|Monday, December 4, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET
|NFL Game Pass
Joe Burrow QB vs. Trevor Lawrence QB
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is averaging 230.9 passing yards per game but has struggled with consistency, recording a pedestrian 91 passer rating. While Burrow has showcased his precision and big-play ability at times, he has also committed multiple turnovers in four games this season. The Jaguars pass defense ranks just 20th, but Burrow must limit mistakes on the road.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has taken a significant step forward in year two, increasing his completion rate, passing yards per game and passer rating from his rookie campaign. Lawrence has also protected the football better, throwing 11 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions through 10 games after recording 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions last season. He should find continued success against a Bengals pass defense that ranks 23rd in opponent passer rating allowed.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -375, Total Odds: 41
The betting odds favor the Jaguars, with a significant spread of -7.5 and a moneyline of -375, reflecting their superior record and recent form. The total set at 41 points suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, a testament to the offensive capabilities of both teams.
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends
The Bengals’ betting trends present a mixed bag. While they are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games, their performance against AFC teams, especially on the road, has been less impressive (1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC opponents). Their strong ATS record in recent road games (14-6) does provide some hope for bettors leaning towards Cincinnati.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends
Jacksonville has been exceptional in covering spreads lately, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Their home record is equally impressive, with an 8-3 SU in their last 11 home games. These trends make the Jaguars a solid pick for those betting against the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 12/4/23 Betting Picks
Given the data and trends, my final thoughts lead me towards favoring the Jaguars. Their recent form, coupled with a strong home record, makes them a formidable opponent for the Bengals. The Jaguars’ ability to cover spreads and perform consistently against AFC North teams also tips the scale in their favor.
For those looking for the best bookie software, this game presents several interesting betting angles. The over/under at 41 might tempt some, especially considering the offensive firepower of both teams. Prop bets on key players like Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence for passing yards or touchdowns could also be lucrative.