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UFC on ESPN 44: Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia 4/15/2023 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC on ESPN 44: Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia 4/15/2023 Picks, Predictions and Odds

Clay Guida will fight Rafa Garcia at T-Mobile Center this Saturday night in an exciting men’s lightweight division fight. Guida boasts more experience than Garcia and hopes to build upon it; meanwhile Guida possesses both skill and power that could put an end to Garcia. However, this should be a pretty even fight between these two. Clay Guida is predicted to beat Rafa Garcia according to current UFC betting picks.

Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia

Date & Time: Saturday, April 15, 2022 at 8:30 PM ET

Location: T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri


Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia Betting Odds


Moneyline: +225


Moneyline: -265

UFC on ESPN 44: Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia 4/15/2023 Picks, Predictions and Odds

Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia Analysis

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida holds an impressive 38-19-0 career record. At 41 years old and 5’7″, Guida weighs in at 155 lbs and can reach 70″. He practices traditional fighter disciplines. Rafa Garcia stands 5’7″, weighs 155 lbs, and enters the Octagon with an undefeated record 15-3-0. At 28 years old he can extend his reach up to 70 inches. With regard to significant strikes per minute, Clay Guida is currently connecting 2.58 times per minute while Rafa Garcia scores 3.27 significant strikes per minute. Guida connects on 34% of his significant strikes while Garcia connects on 40%. When it comes to defense in the Octagon, “The Carpenter” takes 2.80 significant strikes per minute while “Gifted” allows 4.21 significant strikes per minute. Guida also managed to withstand 62% of significant strikes directed towards him from opponents while Garcia deflected 58%.

Clay Guida defeated Scott Holtzman via split decision in round 3 and earned victory via total strikes 77 of 188 and significant strikes 39%. Guida ended this fight landing 95 of 215 total strikes while Holtzman recorded 65 out of 166 to secure his win. Holtzman managed to land 55 of 146 significant strikes that were directed at his head, while Guida managed to land 36%, or 66 out of 183 significant strikes, that targeted his opponent’s head; of these 30 came directly. 92% of Holtzman’s significant strikes landed within range; 87% for Guida.

Rafa Garcia defeated Maheshate via unanimous decision in Round 3. Maheshate was successful at landing 92% of his significant strikes from distance; Garcia connected on 57%. Of all significant strikes attempted 49 out of 98. He connected on 29 of 70 significant head strikes that were significant enough for Maheshate to land 25 significant strikes during their match; of those significant strikes aimed at the head 16 were connected on. Regarding total strikes thrown by both participants during this matchup, Maheshate connected on 30 of 148 and Garcia hit 79 of 138 of them.

Clay Guida vs Rafa Garcia Free Pick

Rafa Garcia will likely struggle in this fight against Clay Guida, known for his powerful strikes that will likely take control from the first moment of contact. According to top UFC betting sites, Guida should win this matchup.

Free Pick: Clay Guida +225

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