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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 227: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 9/16/23 Odds, Analysis, and Picks

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 227: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 9/16/23 – Mixed Martial Arts enthusiasts know that the anticipation of an upcoming UFC fight comes with the thrill of making educated picks. Defending Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko is slated to go head-to-head against rising contender Alexa Grasso. The showdown will take place at T-Mobile Arena on September 16, with the main event kicking off at 10:00 PM ET. This piece delves deep into both fighters’ capabilities, followed by our predicted UFC picks.


Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Game Info

When:Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
Where:T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada, United States


Alexa Grasso Analysis

Alexa Grasso, with her impressive 16-3-0 record, is no pushover in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. Originally from Mexico, she’s built her reputation on her striking, boasting an above-average 4.88 significant strikes per minute. Her style is built upon relentless pressure, utilizing a volume-heavy game to throw opponents off balance. This can be an extremely effective strategy against fighters who are not adept at handling high-output attackers. However, Grasso’s relatively low striking accuracy of 43% exposes a significant concern. Her willingness to throw punches in bunches can sometimes lead to unnecessary openings, which a counter-striker of Shevchenko’s caliber might exploit. The question, then, is whether Grasso can adapt her strategy to focus on precision rather than volume alone. Going into a fight with a technical striker like Shevchenko, Grasso needs to avoid becoming predictable. Unpredictability could become her greatest asset, but she would need to mix up her striking patterns and perhaps even incorporate feints to keep Shevchenko guessing.

On the grappling front, Grasso has room for improvement. Her statistics indicate a lackluster grappling game, averaging only 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 44% accuracy rate. This doesn’t bode well against an opponent like Shevchenko, who is not only defensively solid but also a capable grappler. It’s not that Grasso lacks the talent to improve her ground game, but given her numbers, it might not be a wise strategy to take Shevchenko down. Defensively, Grasso shows promise with a 59% defense rate, but there are red flags. The rate at which she absorbs significant strikes, a high 4.07 per minute, suggests that her defensive game may not be well-rounded enough to handle a striker as accurate as Shevchenko. Her last fight was a loss, and depending on her mental resilience, this could either serve as fuel for her competitive fire or as a psychological burden. Grasso’s mental state will undoubtedly be a critical factor in her performance.


Valentina Shevchenko Analysis

Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko, the reigning Women’s Flyweight Champion, brings a wealth of experience and an imposing 23-4-0 record to the cage. Shevchenko is one of the most well-rounded fighters in women’s MMA, mastering both the striking and grappling aspects of the sport. Shevchenko may not have Grasso’s volume in striking—averaging 3.29 significant strikes per minute—but she more than makes up for it in accuracy, landing an impressive 53% of her strikes. Shevchenko’s striking is a masterclass in technical prowess. Her approach often involves reading the opponent, exploiting weaknesses, and striking with surgical precision. She’s the kind of fighter who can adapt her strategy round-by-round, making her unpredictable and difficult to prepare for. Her striking is so versatile that she’s as comfortable in a kickboxing range as she is in the pocket.

Her grappling is arguably even more fearsome. Shevchenko averages 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 64% accuracy. Her skill set isn’t limited to takedowns; she’s also dangerous in clinch situations and has a knack for executing trip takedowns and throws from judo clinches. Her ground control is solid, and she’s adept at transitioning to dominant positions, which can be demoralizing for opponents. This level of grappling prowess makes her a significant threat in any phase of the fight. Defensively, Shevchenko is rock-solid with a 63% defense rate and only 1.99 significant strikes absorbed per minute. These stats indicate a fighter who knows how to minimize damage, which is crucial in a five-round championship bout. She comes into this fight off a win, potentially giving her a psychological advantage as she seeks to defend her title.


Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Stats

Average Fight Time14:1217:29
Height5′ 5″5′ 5″
Weight125 lbs.125 lbs.
Strikes Landed per Min.4.883.29
Striking Accuracy43%53%
Strikes Absorbed per Min.4.071.99
Takedowns Average/15 min.0.382.57
Takedown Accuracy44%64%
Takedown Defense61%72%
Submission Average/15 min.0.60.3


Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Free Pick

Based on a comprehensive analysis of both fighters’ skill sets, Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko comes across as the more complete fighter. Her proficiency in striking, grappling, and defense outshines that of Alexa Grasso. With a higher strike accuracy, impressive ground control, and better defensive numbers, Shevchenko is likely to maintain her reign as the Women’s Flyweight Champion.


Free Pick: Valentina Shevchenko -164

As bets pour in from the bettors, our recommendation leans in favor of Valentina Shevchenko successfully defending her title. While Alexa Grasso is a skilled and fierce contender, the stats and recent performances suggest that Shevchenko holds the edge. As always, the UFC best bet is informed, so keep these insights in mind when placing your wagers. Don’t miss out on this electrifying clash!

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