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Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia UFC Singapore 8/26/2023 Tips, Odds and Analysis

Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia UFC Singapore 8/26/2023 – The next bout we’ll be looking at is an exciting bantamweight matchup between Fernie Garcia and Rinya Nakamura, both of whom are unbeaten. Given that neither guy is currently rated, these competitors will use all their might to prevail this weekend. Nakamura also needs a win to maintain his perfect record, while Garcia may be fired if he suffers another setback.

Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia Fight Information

Location: Singapore Indoor Stadium, Kallang, Singapore

Date: Saturday, August 26, 2023

Main Card: 10:15 PM ET

Prelims: 8:00 AM EDT

Watch on: ESPN+ and the UFC Fight Pass

Odds: Rinya Nakamura -800, Fernie Garcia +550


UFC Singapore Rinya Nakamura Fernie Garcia
Opening Odds -800 +550
Record 7-0-0 10-3-0
Average Fight Time 2:06 10:43
Height 5’7″ 5’7″
Weight 135 lbs 135 lbs
Reach 68″ 67″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.57 2.18
Striking Accuracy 50% 39%


Having previously secured the title of U23 World Champion in wrestling, Nakamura’s journey in MMA has been a captivating spectacle. Kicking off his career with an undefeated streak of 4-0 in Japan, he made his inaugural appearance in North America during Road to UFC Season 1, where he participated in a bantamweight tournament.

Nakamura’s ascent continued as he impressively dispatched opponents Gugun Gusman and Shohei Nose, ultimately claiming victory in the tournament by delivering a knockout blow to Toshiomi Kazama at UFC Vegas 68. What magnifies this achievement is that Nakamura has displayed remarkable consistency in his first three UFC bouts, achieving victories within the opening round. This underscores his prowess as a fighter and attests to his proficiency as a potent finisher.

Rinya “Hybrid” Nakamura aims to augment his undefeated record of 7-0-0 with another victory. At 28 years old, he maintains a weight of 135 lbs and stands at the height of 5’7″. As a southpaw fighter; his reach extends to 68 inches. On the opposing side, Fernie Garcia shares the same height and weight figures, measuring in at 5’7″ and 135 lbs. This orthodox fighter enters the match with a record of 10-3-0, carrying a reach of 67″.

Regarding significant strikes, Rinya Nakamura impressively lands an average of 8.57 strikes per minute, whereas Fernie Garcia closely trails with 2.18 significant strikes per minute. Nakamura’s accuracy in landing significant strikes stands at 50%, while Garcia’s accuracy is slightly lower at 39%. When evaluating their defensive abilities within the Octagon, “Hybrid” absorbs an average of 3.65 significant strikes per minute, while Garcia absorbs 2.83. Notably, Nakamura exhibits strong defensive skills, deflecting 62% of the significant strikes directed toward him, while Garcia showcases a defensive rate of 54%, successfully blocking 54% of the strikes aimed at him.

Fernando “Fernie” Garcia

On the flip side, Garcia‘s career trajectory hasn’t unfolded as initially anticipated. Despite an impressive start to his UFC journey, where he secured a TKO victory over Joshua Weems on Dana White’s Contender Series 2021, Garcia faced setbacks. Instead of building on that initial success, the 31-year-old endured consecutive unanimous decision losses in subsequent bouts against Journey Newsom and Brady Hiestand.

In essence, the native of Dallas, Texas finds himself in a position where he cannot afford another defeat this weekend. Yet, the road to recovery is bound to be challenging for Garcia. Nakamura’s opponent possesses an unwavering tenacity, landing an impressive 8.57 significant strikes per minute—surpassing Garcia’s count by more than six—with a commendable 50% accuracy rate. Nakamura boasts an average of 4.76 takedowns and 2.4 submissions per 15 minutes, emphasizing his multifaceted prowess. While Garcia showcases decent wrestling skills, it’s evident that Nakamura’s dynamic offensive approach might prove overwhelming on the day.

In Garcia’s recent Octagon appearance, he faced Brady Hiestand and suffered a unanimous decision loss in the third round. Hiestand achieved an 84% accuracy in significant strikes attempted from a distance, whereas Garcia managed a 95% accuracy in the same category. Specifically, Garcia connected on 47% of his significant strike attempts, successfully landing 21 out of 44 strikes. Among these, 13 of 36 significant strikes were targeted towards the head. In contrast, Hiestand landed 19 of 34 significant strikes, and his head strike accuracy stood at 10 of 23. Regarding total strikes, Hiestand managed to connect 56 out of 82, while Garcia achieved a higher count by landing 86 out of 125 total strikes.

Nakamura vs. Garcia Betting Trends

Given the substantial imbalance in the Nakamura vs. Garcia odds, finding value in the moneyline might be challenging unless one is betting on an upset. Fortunately, sportsbooks offer an array of diverse markets with more favorable odds in anticipation of the UFC Singapore event.

One notable expectation is that we will likely witness some form of conclusion on Saturday morning. Sportsbooks indicate a preference for this matchup not reaching the full distance (-325), and oddsmakers also favor the under on the 2.5-round total, presenting odds of -290.

Garcia’s most plausible path to victory is via points, although this outcome remains distantly priced at +1100 odds. Despite his 6-3 record in fights that go the distance, he has recently encountered setbacks in his last two contests, concluding in some form of decision. Even if Garcia manages to weather his opponent’s aggressive approach, Nakamura remains a commanding favorite at -700 odds if the contest extends the full distance.

Anticipating a swift encounter, it’s hardly surprising that Nakamura is favored to triumph by KO/TKO at odds of -135. Notably, five of his seven career victories have been secured through knockouts, including his most recent wins.

Nakamura vs. Garcia Prediction & Picks

Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia: While it may be tempting to pursue a major upset, let’s not overthink things. Nakamura is a unique fighter with a deadly track record in the octagon. Garcia doesn’t appear to belong in the UFC, and when the dust settles, he’ll have suffered his third straight defeat.

The best wager is a Nakamura (+215) first-round KO/TKO victory. Expect that pattern to continue against a discouraged Garcia this weekend after easily dispatching his initial opponents. Nakamura’s bombardment will prove too much before he stops the fight almost as fast as it began.

Pick Rinya Nakamura to win via First Round KO/TKO.


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