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New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox 6/17/2023 Analysis, Picks and Previews

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox 6/17/2023 Analysis, Picks and Previews

On Saturday, June 17, 2023, at 7:15 PM ET, the New York Yankees will take on the Boston Red Sox in MLB play at Fenway Park in Massachusetts. After his outstanding catch against the Dodgers, which contributed to his team’s victory, Aaron Judge was put back on the disabled list. That’s terrible news for the Yankees, who came into Boston averaging just 3.50 runs per game without him in the lineup. For reference, the A’s 3.62 average per game is the lowest in the majors. Harrison Bader’s return would have strengthened this team’s lineup and defense, and current indications indicate that he will do so on Tuesday. This club needs to find other methods to score runs because their other big hitters are also struggling. Giancarlo Stanton is slashing, and Anthony Rizzo just ended the longest hitless streak of his MLB career. Since returning from his injury, Josh Donaldson has posted a career-worst hitting line of 138/.265/.379, while DJ LeMahieu is a shadow of the player he once was. They must seize every opportunity if they are to score.

The pitching of this squad, notably its top-ranked bullpen, continues to be the reason for its success. The Yankees keep finding relievers who take advantage of most of their opportunities. Clarke Schmidt is tasked with handing them the ball in a close game, and he typically succeeds. Schmidt has a 2.33 ERA in his previous five appearances, and he pitched 5.1 innings of one-run ball against Boston after losing his last four outings for New York. Over the course of the four defeats, the Yankees only managed to score a total of five runs, with two of those runs coming in a single game. Due to injuries, Schmidt was suddenly given a more important position, yet he seemed to be improving.

The Yankees utilized 218 bullpen pitchers throughout the season. This season, the bullpen pitchers inherited 116 base runners, and 36.2% of them resulted in runs for their team. They have made 20 saves this season, while 10 of their 30 save opportunities have been missed. The Yankees’ bullpen pitchers began the game with a 66.7% save percentage and 67 save opportunities. The 37 relievers occupy this season’s 13th place in MLB.

  • The total stayed under in five of the New York  Yankees’ last seven matches.
  • The NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last nine games.
  • The Yankees are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games with Boston. 

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox 6/17/2023 Analysis, Picks and Previews

Between the second game of a doubleheader on June 3 and their game on June 12, the Red Sox scored 25 runs in 10 games. The 2.5 runs per game average is much less than their eighth-ranked 4.9 average. However, they did close their series with the Rockies by scoring six runs or more on two separate occasions. Since this Boston team is offensively focused, they will require it if they want to win these games comfortably. The Red Sox have the sixth-best strikeout rate in MLB, a top-10 average, OBP, and slugging percentage. This hitting order may be problematic for pitchers, especially at home where Rafael Devers leads the league in RBIs.

On the mound, though, a different narrative is told. Boston’s team ERA this season is 22nd despite having a significantly better bullpen than it was in 2022. Despite the rotation’s turbulence, Brayan Bello is beginning to emerge as a rock. Bello’s most recent outing occurred at Yankee Stadium, and he has had a 2.93 ERA since the beginning of May. He threw 7.0 innings on Sunday night, allowing just two runs in the Red Sox’s decisive triumph in extra innings. Aside from the proportion of home runs significantly greater than the previous season, he has progressed since his first year in 2022.

Boston’s relievers had 25 opportunities to make saves going into the game, but only managed to save 18. They have employed 212 relievers so far this season, and they now have the fourth-best save percentage in the league (72.0%). They employed their bullpen relievers 58 times in high-pressure situations and 40 times with runners on base. Pitchers in the Boston bullpen had an acquired scoring rate of 31.3% out of their 64 inherited base runners. With 33 holds and seven botched saves, the Red Sox currently have 58 save opportunities.

  • The total remained under five of the Red Sox’s last seven matches.
  • The total stayed under in four of Boston’s last five matches with the New York Yankees.
  • The Boston Red Sox are 2-5 SU in their last seven matches at home.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox The MLB pick for this game is the New York Yankees. Despite Judge’s protracted absence, the Yankees could still compete because of their strong pitching staff, which can generally shut out opponents. New York should always be considered the favorite in a low-scoring encounter between these clubs. Their pitching staff is more powerful and enjoys all-around superior ratings. Their offense isn’t especially dangerous without Judge, but there are still enough runners in the lineup to score runs. The Yankees came out on top in this closely contested clash between two starters. The New York Yankees will triumph, as expected, 5-3.

MLB Starting Time: 7:15 PM ET

Location: Fenway Park, MA

Date: Saturday, June 17, 2023


MLB Odds: New York Yankees +117

MLB Totals: 9


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