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New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds 5/11/2023 Analysis, Picks and Odds

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds 5/11/2023 Analysis, Picks and Odds

It’s a final showdown for the Mets and the Reds as they play their third and last game of the series on Thursday afternoon. In the first game on Tuesday, the Reds held off the Mets to win 7-6. The Mets have been struggling lately, losing six out of their last seven games. Their pitching has been especially problematic, with a team ERA ranking 23rd in the league. They’ve only managed five quality starts so far this season, tying for the lowest in the league. RHP Kodai Senga, who has two of those quality starts, will start for the Mets.

On the offensive end, the Mets haven’t been much better, with a team batting average of .236, which is ninth-lowest in the league. They’ve scored 156 runs in 36 games, and although they have drawn 137 walks, which is sixth in baseball, they are one of only nine teams yet to reach 300 strikeouts. Brandon Nimmo leads the team with a .300 batting average and 19 walks but has been struggling in his last nine games, hitting just .222 with one RBI.

The Reds, on the other hand, won the series opener and are looking to take the series with a win on Thursday. They have yet to announce a starter, but it is expected to be recently recalled RHP Ben Lively, who last pitched in the majors in 2019. This will be the last meeting between the two teams until September, and the game is set to start at 12:35 EST at Great American Ball Park.

  • The New York Mets are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The NY Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Cincinnati.
  • The Mets are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road.

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds 5/11/2023 Analysis, Picks and Odds

The Reds are still lacking confidence. They had won 2-1 before Wednesday night’s game but were also 3-5 in the previous eight games. Their offense is average, ranking 15th with a team batting average of .247 after 35 games. They have struck out 316 times in that period, tied for 14th most overall and their 151 runs tied for seventh lowest. Center fielder T.J. Friedl had two hits, two RBIs, and two runs in leading the Reds to a win in the first game of the series. In seven games this month he is batting .417 with seven RBIs and 1.190 OPS.

Cincinnati’s pitching has been terrible, posting a 5.22 team ERA which is the fourth worst in the game. Opponents are batting .278 against them after 35 games, the second-highest average against them overall. Lively is the probable replacement for this rotation spot, at least for now. He was promoted from Triple-A, along with reliever Kevin Herget, on Tuesday while the team cut starter Luis Cessa in the process. 

  • The Cincinnati Reds are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games.
  • Cincinnati is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the National League.
  • The total went OVER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games with a team in the NL East Division.

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Pick for this contest is the New York Mets. New York SP Max Scherzer (neck) missed Tuesday’s start and hopes to pitch this weekend against Washington. After 37 games, New York ranks 17th in OPS and 18th in runs scored. For the season, Cincinnati ranks 20th in OPS and 23rd in runs scored. Pick the Mets to win on the road.  Prediction: New York Mets win 6-3.

MLB Starting Time: 12:30 PM ET

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio 

Date: Thursday, May 11, 2023 


MLB Odds/Point Spread: New York Mets -200

MLB Totals: 10.0


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