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Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland UFC 291 7/29/2023 Analysis, Bets, and Odds

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland UFC 291 7/29/2023 Analysis, Bets, and Odds

On Saturday at UFC 291, Kevin Holland and Michael Chiesa will face off in the Octagon on July 29, 2023. Holland is at -145, and Chiesa is at +125 on the moneyline.

Chiesa, ranked 12th in the welterweight division, knows that winning this fight is essential to maintaining his standing in the weight class. Chiesa dropped his previous two matches, and the southpaw feels a strong sense of urgency. Chiesa lost to Sean Brady in a recent fight by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate in 2021.

The 25-year-old Chiesa won 11 times through submission, which is how he prefers to end bouts. He averages 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 54 percent success rate in the UFC. Given that he hasn’t been knocked out yet in his MMA professional career, Chiesa also has a sturdy chin.

Michael “Maverick” Chiesa enters the Octagon with a record of 18-6-0. The 35-year-old is 6’1″ tall and weighs 170 pounds—Southpaw boxer. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland weighs 170 lbs. and is 6’3″ tall. The orthodox boxer enters the ring with a 24-9-0 (1 NC) record. The 30-year-old’s body measures 81.” Michael Chiesa connects on 1.88 significant strikes per minute, whereas Kevin Holland hits on 4.12 significant strikes per minute. Holland is landing 52% of his major blows, compared to Chiesa’s 41% success rate. “Maverick” receives 1.67 significant strikes per minute in the cage, while “Trailblazer” surrenders 2.98. Chiesa also blocks 54% of the heavy blows directed at him, and Holland deflects 52% of the gunfire.

Michael Chiesa is the more effective wrestler, as he can score a takedown 3.39 times every three rounds in grappling. Chiesa completes 54% of his takedown attempts and thwarts 60% of all shots against him. In 41% of his takedown attempts, Holland successfully brings his opponents to the ground while stuffing 50% of attempts against him. Chiesa, a more experienced fighter, attempts 1.0 submissions every 15 minutes, while Holland aims for 0.5 submissions every three rounds.

Michael Chiesa lost to Sean Brady by unanimous decision in round three of their last encounter in the Octagon. Ultimately, Brady connected on 51 of the 80 total strikes he tried. Chiesa finished the evening connecting on 71 of 107 attempts. Brady connected on 18 of his 42 significant strikes at 42%. He hit the head with eight of his 31 significant strikes.

On the other hand, Chiesa connected on 29 of 57 of his major blows, landing 50%. He hit 19 of his 44 head-targeted blows, a substantial number. Brady nailed every big blow he fired, while Chiesa landed 62% of them from a distance.

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland UFC 291 7/29/2023 Analysis, Bets, and Odds

For Chiesa, Kevin Holland may be a challenging client. Even though Chiesa has yet to lose a knockout, Holland has what it takes to be the first to do so. Holland has 14 victories by knockout. That amounts to 58 percent of his wins so far. In April last year, he beat Santiago Ponzinibbio by knockout at UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2.

Compared to Chiesa’s 1.88 significant strikes per minute, Holland averages 4.12 significant strikes per minute. Chiesa should have trouble with his reach since Holland, who has 11 first-round victories overall, will have an edge of 5.5 inches over his next opponent. Although 

Holland is known for his knockouts; he has seven submission victories to show he can compete on the mat.

Kevin Holland defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio in his final fight, earning the victory with a blow to the head in round 3. Ponzinibbio ultimately landed all the significant distance strikes he attempted, whereas Holland ultimately landed 93% of those critical distance blows. Holland completed 66 of 197 important strikes or 33% of his total attempts. He delivered 138 major headshots, landing 24. In the bout, Ponzinibbio connected  44 of 104 crucial blows. He connected on 12 of 58 of the critical hits to the head. Ponzinibbio connected on 44 of the 104 total blows he fired in the bout, while Holland hit on 67 of the 198 total strikes he threw.

Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa. Chiesa will succeed on the ground, earning points for some clean shots in close quarters and his takedowns to offset Holland’s length.

Prediction:  Chiesa wins via decision.

Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah

Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023

Main Card: 10:00 PM ET

Prelims: 8:00 PM ET

Watch on: ESPN and ESPN+


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