Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers 1/1/2023 Best Picks, Tips and Predictions
The Los Angeles Rams will meet with the Los Angeles Chargers in NFL action in SoFi Stadium, CA, on Sunday, January 1, 2023, at 4:25 PM ET. Before signing QB Baker Mayfield, the Rams had a six-game losing streak. They just destroyed the Denver Broncos 51-14, with Mayfield throwing 24 of 28 passes for 230 yards (8.2 yards per pass), two touchdowns, and no interceptions or lost fumbles. For 158 yards, they ran the ball 36 times (4.4 per rush). They entered the end zone 6 times, and on five of those occasions, they scored a touchdown. With four interceptions and a touchdown of their own, the defense was on fire, limiting Denver to just 323 yards overall. The +3 spread was completely ignored by Los Angeles, and the final score was much higher than 36.5.
This year, the Rams’ offense operated under the mantra “slow and steady wins the race.” Although this improved with Mayfield, they still rank lowest in both yards per play (4.7) and yards per game (281.5). They are rated first in fourth down conversion rate (77.78%) and second in opponent red zone TD percentage (44.68%), both indicators of how well they perform under pressure. Since they average the second-fewest penalties per game (4.7) and the fifth-fewest penalty yards, they are clearly well-coached (39.9). The offensive line had trouble; it has the fourth-worst sack rate in the NFL, at 9.50%.
- The LA Rams are 2-7 SU in their last 9 matches.
- The LA Rams are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against LA Chargers.
- The LA Rams are 4-2 SU in their last 6 matches against LA Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers 1/1/2023 Best Picks, Tips and Predictions
This is the second three-game victory streak for the Chargers this year. A 20-3 win over the Indianapolis Colts was the third triumph. Los Angeles had 17 first downs while Indianapolis only got 10. The Chargers “only” gained 314 yards on the ground, but they managed to limit the Colts to only 173. They made off with three interceptions as well. However, there was some sloppiness there because they also lost a fumble and had an interception of their own. Even though the total fell below 45, they were still able to cover the -3.5 spread.
QB Justin Herbert is the Chargers’ only quarterback. They have the third-highest completion percentage (67.77%) and the second-highest pass-play rate (65.76%) in the league. They don’t all land knockout blows (6.4 yards per throw, 19th place), but they mount up quickly (generating 270.1 passing yards per game, ranked third). They are very disciplined, ranking third in play-by-play penalties (0.04). The Chargers’ run defense is one of their biggest areas of weakness, surrendering the second-worst average of 5.3 yards per carry, which contributes to the team’s opponents scoring an average of 0.385 points per play (ranked 29th).
- The total went UNDER in 4 of the LA Chargers’ last 5 matches.
- The LA Chargers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 matches.
- The total went OVER in 8 of the LA Chargers’ last 9 matches against the LA Rams.
Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers. The NFL pick is the Los Angeles Rams but the play here is OVER. Even though this is, in theory, a Chargers home game, SoFi Stadium is likely to be packed with Rams supporters on Sunday. This is significant since the Rams are 3-0 ATS in home games during the month of December. They went 4-1 in their past five games after opening the season 1-7-1 ATS, which is a definite indication of improvement, and was finished off by their 51-point performance against Denver. Even better, the Chargers had trouble executing in those situations (50.00% red zone TD rate, ranked 26th), and the Rams are the second-best team in the league at stopping TDs in the red zone. The Rams looked better each and every week, and Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield continue to gel, so this is a phony home game for the Chargers. The Los Angeles Rams will win to a predicted score of 24-14
NFL Starting Time: 4:25 PM (EDT)
Location: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Date: Sunday, January 1, 2023
TV: FOX
NFL Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
NFL Totals: 41.5
