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Kevin Lee vs Rinat Fakhretdinov 7/1/2023 Picks, Analysis and Previews

Kevin Lee vs Rinat Fakhretdinov 7/1/2023 Picks, Analysis and Previews

Kevin Lee will battle Rinat Fakhretdinov at UFC Vegas 76 on Saturday, July 1, 2023. The opener has Lee coming in at +175 while Fakhretdinov is at -250.

Kevin, “The Motown Phenom” Lee, steps into the cage holding a record of 18-7-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs. and measures 5’9″. The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 77 inches. Rinat “Gladiator” Fakhretdinov stands at 6’0″ and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 20-1-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 74″. In the category of significant strikes, Kevin Lee is connecting at 3.89 per minute, while Rinat Fakhretdinov is landing 2.93 significant strikes per minute. Lee is landing 42% of his significant strikes, while Fakhretdinov is connecting on 68%. In defending themselves, “The Motown Phenom” absorbs 3.56 significant strikes per minute, while “Gladiator” absorbs 0.70. Lee also stops 50% of the signature strikes aimed in his direction, while Fakhretdinov thwarts 57% of the shots thrown in his order.

Regarding wrestling, Kevin Lee is less effective of a grappler than he takes his opponents to the mat 3.19 times per 15 minutes. Lee is taking his opponents to the canvas 43% of the time he tries and stopping 75% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Fakhretdinov is taking his opponents down on 63% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 85% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Lee is the more skilled fighter, going for 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes, while Fakhretdinov goes for 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes.

The last time he fought, Kevin Lee squared up with Daniel Rodriguez and walked away in defeat by unanimous decision in round 3. Rodriguez landed 137 of the 229 total strikes he let go in that contest. Lee walked away from this fight having landed 74 of 181 total strikes. Regarding significant strikes, Rodriguez landed 120 of 210, which means his percentage was 57%. He landed 87 of 175 significant strikes aimed at the head.

Meanwhile, Lee landed 35% of his strikes by landing 56 of 160. Of those significant strikes, he landed 39 of 134 pointed at the head. 94% of the significant strikes connected by Rodriguez and 98% of the strikes landed by Lee were at a distance.

Kevin Lee vs Rinat Fakhretdinov 7/1/2023 Picks, Analysis and Previews

In the last bout for Rinat Fakhretdinov, he squared up with Bryan Battle and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Battle landed 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance, while Fakhretdinov connected 18% of his significant strikes at a distance. 

Fakhretdinov landed 63% of his considerable strikes attempted, connecting on 43 of 68. He landed 38 of 62 significant strikes to the head—Battle connected on three of the 16 strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 1 of 11 to the head. Regarding the strikes he fired in this contest, Battle landed 25 of 42, while Fakhretdinov connected on 102 of the 149 strikes he threw. 

Fakhretdinov is currently on a 19-fight win streak going into this bout. His most recent victory was a unanimous decision against Bryan Battle in December last year. His fighting resume shows that he has 20 wins that consist of 11 knockouts, five submissions, and four decisions. Twelve of his 20 wins have resulted in first-round finishes; his only loss has come by decision.

He has a striking accuracy of 68 percent and a takedown accuracy of 63 percent. He lands 2.93 significant strikes a minute while taking on 0.70. This ratio is excellent, but he can be more aggressive here. His defense against significant strikes is 57 percent, and his takedown defense is 100 percent. He also averages six takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov This duel will be an appealing strike war since Lee has a moderate amount of strikes landed each minute. Fakhretdinov has not been aggressive in his two UFC fights but has been adamant about landing takedowns. The pins will likely slow the pace and allow him to win by decision.

Prediction: Take Rinat Fakhretdinov to Win at -225

Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Date: Saturday, July 01, 2023

Main Card: 7:00 PM ET

Prelims: 4:00 PM ET

Watch on: ESPN and ESPN+


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