UFC FIGHT NIGHT 238 Betting Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev 3/2/2024
As the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, prepares to host UFC Fight Night 238 on Saturday, March 2, 2024, the heavyweight showdown between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev is capturing the attention of fight fans and bettors alike. Rozenstruik enters the bout with a record of 13 wins, 5 losses, and no draws, while the undefeated Gaziev boasts a flawless 12-0-0 record. This intriguing matchup not only promises explosive action but also presents a compelling opportunity for enthusiasts scouring the top betting websites for value.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Game Info
| When: | Saturday, March 2, 2024 at 4:00 PM ET |
| Where: | UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Analysis
The stats show that Rozenstruik heads into this bout with a solid 13-5 record and averages just under 8 minutes per fight. At 6’2” with a 78” reach, he possesses dangerous length that could present issues for his opponent. Rozenstruik prefers to stand and strike, as an orthodox fighter who lands 2.81 significant strikes per minute. While not an extremely high volume, he is efficient with his output, connecting on 45% of attempts. However, the numbers also reveal defensive vulnerabilities – Rozenstruik gets hit at a rate of 3.15 significant strikes absorbed per minute and stops only 45% of what comes his way. This could leave openings for the heavy-handed Gaziev to break through.
While not known as a wrestling-based fighter, Rozenstruik has managed to defend takedowns at a 73% rate. He also does not actively hunt for submissions, averaging none per 15 minute fight. Clearly, Rozenstruik wants this bout to be a stand-up striking battle. If he can establish his power left hand early while surviving Gaziev’s counters, his path to victory relies on accumulated damage leading to a knockout. However, his defensive holes show a susceptibility to getting caught himself.
Shamil Gaziev Analysis
At 14-0, Gaziev remains undefeated with an 80% finishing rate, including 10 KO and 5 submission wins. He strikes at an alarming pace of 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute, with solid 51% accuracy. Gaziev has also demonstrated stellar defense – absorbing less than 1 significant strike per minute while deflecting 60% of the attempts against him. This type of efficient output could present real problems for Rozenstruik. Additionally, Gaziev has never been taken down in UFC competition, with perfect 100% takedown defense.
While his striking metrics jump off the page, Gaziev has more strings to his bow. With 1.8 submissions per 15 minute average, he is adept at exploiting openings on the mat or against dazed opponents. His lone decision victory also shows an ability to fight deep water when needed. Riding a spectacular 14 fight unbeaten streak, Gaziev has the statistical profile of a dangerous fighter entering his prime. If he can weather Rozenstruik’s early power, his volume and variety could prove overwhelming down the stretch. This is Gaziev’s fight to lose.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Stats
| Rozenstruik | Gaziev | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 13-5-0 | 12-0-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 7:39 | 4:17 |
| Height | 6′ 2″ | 6′ 4″ |
| Weight | 242 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach | 78″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 2.81 | 6.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 51% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 3.15 | 0.93 |
| Defense | 45% | 60% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0% | 0% |
| Takedown Defense | 73% | 100% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.0 | 1.8 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Betting Picks
Given the heavy power that both men wield, this fight likely ends inside the distance. Rozenstruik is the more battle-tested fighter overall and the betting choice for good reason. However, Gaziev possesses perhaps even more dangerous finishing ability. He should not be underestimated as a +130 underdog in this potential shootout.
At such a tight betting line, there is enough value with the upset-minded Gaziev to make him the recommended selection. Rozenstruik has suffered stoppage defeats before, while his opponent remains flawless through 12 contests. As long as Gaziev makes it through a dangerous first five minutes, expect his significant strikes and grappling accuracy numbers to steadily rise. In the end, bettors siding with Gaziev have an opportunity to cash a plus-money ticket on an unbeaten rising contender.
Free Pick: Shamil Gaziev +130
With a clash of heavyweights holding this much one-punch power, predicting the victor makes for quite a risky endeavor. However, for those seeking value, taking a shot with the underdog Shamil Gaziev at plus-money odds is warranted. Overall, MMA free betting picks point to Gaziev as a live upset candidate capable of finally handing Jairzinho Rozenstruik his first stoppage loss.
