Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) vs. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
The surging 8-4 Jacksonville Jaguars take on the 7-5 Cleveland Browns this Sunday night in an important AFC matchup with major playoff implications. This interconference clash features two rushing attacks that thrive behind mobile quarterbacks. Read on for a breakdown of the odds, trends, analysis for this exciting Daily NFL picks showdown.
Led by Travis Etienne Jr., the Jaguars boast the league’s 5th best rushing offense. The second-year back is averaging a stellar 66 rushing yards per game and has found the end zone seven times on the ground this season. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence continues to take strides in year two, utilizing athletic playmakers like Christian Kirk and Zay Jones on the outside. The Jags enter this contest red hot having won seven of their last nine games.
The Browns ground game revolves around rookie Jerome Ford, who brings speed and physicality totaling 53.9 rushing yards per contest in 2022. Deshaun Watson has provided a spark since returning from suspension, but turnovers have been his Achilles heel posting a mediocre 4:3 TD to INT ratio. Top wideout Amari Cooper is working on his fourth straight 1,000 yard campaign and hopes to exploit Jacksonville’s 23rd ranked pass defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Game Info
|Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
|Cleveland Browns Stadium
|NFL Game Pass
Trevor Lawrence QB vs. Deshaun Watson QB
Trevor Lawrence struggled with consistency issues as a rookie but has taken a major step forward in year two. The former number one overall pick has already set new career highs in passer rating (92), yards per attempt (7.4), and passing touchdowns (12). Lawrence utilizes his mobility outside the pocket, rushing for an additional 289 yards. His solid decision making and improved accuracy have been keys to Jacksonville’s success.
In just six starts since returning from his 11-game suspension, Deshaun Watson‘s has not yet provided the stability at quarterback Cleveland hoped for. While he flashes high upside making explosive plays with his legs, Watson has had trouble avoiding costly turnovers. If he can limit mistakes and take better care of the football, the Browns offense has enough firepower to compete with anyone. Watson’s four interceptions against the Bengals last week are very concerning facing a takeaway-happy Jaguars defense.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -158, Total Odds: 36.5
The betting odds favor the Jaguars, reflecting their stronger record and recent performance. The point spread and moneyline indicate that the Jaguars are expected to win, but the relatively low total points suggest a defensive battle or a game with limited scoring opportunities.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends
The betting trends overwhelmingly favor the Jaguars here. Jacksonville has been remarkably consistent against the spread, covering in seven of their past nine overall. Additionally, they are a perfect 9-0 against the number on the road this season. The Jags have also performed well historically when facing the Browns, covering five of the previous six meetings. The under has hit in eight of Cleveland’s last nine at home pointing to a low output. Based on recent performances and trends, Jacksonville looks like the right side Monday night.
Cleveland Browns Betting Trends
The betting trends for Cleveland tell an entirely different story. While quarterback Deshaun Watson provided optimism upon returning, he’s failed to cover since coming back. The Browns have struggled at home versus AFC South opponents as well, failing to cover five straight in that spot. Cleveland has been atrocious in December too, going just 1-8 straight up their last nine. The lone bright spot is the offense’s penchant to sneak over this low total at home. With two potent ground attacks, 36.5 points seems reasonable.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns 12/10/23 Betting Picks
Considering the data and trends, the Jaguars seem to have an edge in this matchup. Their strong offensive performance, combined with consistent play on the road, makes them a solid pick. However, the Browns’ resilience, especially in home games, cannot be overlooked. This game could be closer than the odds suggest.
When it comes to choosing a side, the Jaguars appear to be the better pick, but the Browns’ ability to keep games close, especially at home, could make them a tempting underdog bet. In terms of prop bets, looking at individual player performances, such as rushing or receiving yards, could be beneficial. The total points line suggests a lower-scoring game, so the under might be a safe bet. Expect Jacksonville to control both lines of scrimmage en route to a 22-14 victory for Week 14’s top online betting play.