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Holly Holm vs Yana Santos 3/25/2023 Expert Picks, Analysis and Odds

Holly Holm vs Yana Santos 3/25/2023 Expert Picks, Analysis and Odds

March 25, 2023, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas Main card (ESPN, ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET); Prelims (ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, ESPN at 4:30 p.m. ET)

Holly Holm, known as “The Preacher’s Daughter,” boasts a career record of 14-6-0. The 41-year-old fighter weighs in at 135 lbs and stands tall at 5’8″. Holm, a southpaw fighter, extends her reach to 69″. Her opponent, Yana Santos, is an orthodox fighter with a mark of 14-6-0 (1 NC) and measures 5’6″ and 135 lbs with a reach of 68″.

In terms of significant strikes, Holm lands 3.24 per minute, while Santos connects on 4.28 significant strikes per minute. Holm’s significant strike success rate is 39%, while Santos boasts an impressive 56%. Defensively, Holm absorbs 2.86 significant strikes per minute and defends against 56% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her. Santos, on the other hand, absorbs 2.94 significant strikes per minute and stops 50% of the shots thrown in her direction.

When it comes to wrestling, Holm’s grappling skills are not as effective, as she scores a takedown 0.72 times per 3 rounds, finishing her attempts only 26% of the time, but successfully stuffing 78% of her opponents’ takedowns. In comparison, Santos scores a takedown on 53% of her attempts and stops 50% of the attempts against her. In terms of submission attempts, Holm tries only 0.1 submissions per 3 rounds, while Santos aims for 0.2 submissions per 3 rounds.

Holly Holm vs Yana Santos 3/25/2023 Expert Picks, Analysis and Odds

Yana Santos, who became a parent last April, is returning to the Octagon after an 11-month break following her loss to Irene Aldana by TKO in round 1, making it her sixth career loss. Santos has one no-contest in her portfolio, along with 14 wins, with half of those wins happening by KO/TKO. However, her strongest weapon, striking, is not good enough to beat Holm. Santos’ only chance of winning on Saturday is to secure victory by points.

Holm’s previous bout against Ketlen Vieira ended in defeat via a split decision in round 5. Vieira landed 122 of 190 total strikes attempted in that fight, while Holm landed 188 of the 263 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Vieira landed 85 of 151, while Holm landed 96 of 157. Holm landed 57% of her significant strikes, with 26 of 79 aimed at the head. On the other hand, 57% of the significant strikes landed by Vieira and 79% of them connected by Holm were thrown at a distance.

Holly Holm vs. Yana Santos Prediction. Holm is superior to Santos in pretty much everything. The only advantage the Russian has is that she’s eight years younger. Still, this doesn’t mean she’s in better shape than her American rival. And even if she is, it might not matter much as the co-main event of UFC San Antonio is a three-round fight. Even at 41, Holm looks capable of fighting for 15 minutes.

Pick: Holly Holm to win by decision

Date: Saturday, March 25, 2023

Venue: AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas


Odds: Holly Holm -220

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