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UFC on ESPN 56 Betting Prediction: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento 5/11/2024

UFC on ESPN 56 Betting Prediction: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento 5/11/2024

While UFC on ESPN 56 is something fans have been waiting for, they are already really looking forward to this match between Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis and Rodrigo “Ze Colmeia” Nascimento. The event would be held on 11th of May, 2024, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. In fact, both combatants have listed glorious results, but considering the fact that Lewis is more experienced in mixed martial arts, he might be given a slight edge in the UFC betting picks and odds. The upcoming clash is proof of something more than audience entertainment, but as well as critical lessons for people who make predictions on the next battle in the octagon.


Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Game Info

When: Saturday, May 11, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET
Where: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri, USA


Derrick Lewis Analysis

Derrick Lewis, 27 wins, 12 losses and one NC, is a highly skilled heavyweight fighter, who is unmatched in hitting power and tenacity inside the ring. He usually spends about 9 minutes in the ring, which proves that he can stand extended time of physical involvement. Lewis obtains a mean number of 2. 43 strikes every minute with an accuracy of 50% and absorbing 2.48 strikes per minute. His grappling is measured by a 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes but his takedown defense is at only 53%. Despite the Almeida loss, Lewis remains one of the best, hoping to finish opponents with devastating punches in the heavyweight label. The important factor can be either his experience or outstanding initial zest, which could be a key factor in his victory over Nascimento’s relative inexperience.


Rodrigo Nascimento Analysis

Rodrigo Nascimento, who is 11-1-0 and the younger and less experienced fighter, uses a different approach than Alcantara. Being one inch shorter than Lewis, he makes up with a longer reach of 80 inches and a more frequent grappling approach which he uses on average once per a round. 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes with higher accuracy of 33%. His strike rate is higher still with 4.31 strikes landed per minute, of which he yields 4.76 strikes absorbed per minute. Nascimento’s final triumph against Mayes demonstrated his improved striking and his ability to not give up. Lewis’ superior grappling skills and submission average indicate that he could use this advantage to offset the striking power of his opponent.


Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Stats

Lewis Nascimento
Wins/Losses/Draws 27-12-0 (1 NC) 11-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 9:05 8:56
Height 6′ 3″ 6′ 2″
Weight 260 lbs. 246 lbs.
Reach 79″ 80″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Strikes Landed per Min. 2.43 4.31
Striking Accuracy 50% 48%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 2.48 4.76
Defense 40% 43%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 0.53 1.20
Takedown Accuracy 26% 33%
Takedown Defense 53% 77%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.0 0.7


Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Betting Picks

Analyzing both fighters’ strengths and weaknesses, the betting dynamics for this matchup lean slightly towards Derrick Lewis due to his knockout power and resilience under pressure. However, the close odds reflect the competitive nature of this fight. Bettors should consider Lewis’s ability to withstand punishment and deliver decisive blows, making him a solid pick despite the tighter odds.

Grapple efficiency of Rodrigo Nascimento with such an increase in his fame and superiority in ground techniques could potentially cause the biggest problem and especially if the fight ends up on the mat. Thus, despite his higher rate of resistance to the power punch, he may still face weakness in the case of a powerful puncher like Lewis. From the standpoint of the debate on betting and the prediction of the results, maybe Lewis’s experience in critical fights might just be the deciding factor compared to Nascimento’s less experienced processing within the octagon in the UFC.


Free Pick: Derrick Lewis -145

This UFC on ESPN 56 showdown between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento is a must-watch for MMA enthusiasts and bettors alike. Whether you are a seasoned bettor or just looking for that next exciting match to watch, leveraging insights from top bookie software can enhance your viewing and betting experience. Make sure to catch all the action on ESPN+ and place your bets wisely, considering both the odds and the fighters’ capabilities.

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