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Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima UFC 291 7/29/2023 Picks, Odds, and Prediction

Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima UFC 291 7/29/2023 Picks, Odds, and Prediction

On Saturday, July 29, 2023, Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima will square off at UFC 291. Lewis is projected to open at +155, while de Lima is at -180.

Derrick Lewis wants to win at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City to snap his losing run. Marcos and Derrick are heavyweight opponents. Lewis has lost his past three fights inside the Octagon. Therefore, this battle will be necessary for his future professional career. When he most recently competed, in February of this year, against Serghei Spivac, he was defeated in the first round via submission. Lewis, who formerly appeared to have a promising future in the heavyweight class, is struggling.

Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis will aim to increase his winning streak, which now stands at 26-11-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old weighs 260 pounds and is 6’3″ tall. The traditional combatant reaches 79.” Marcos “Pezao” Rogerio de Lima weighs 253 lbs. and is 6’1″ tall. The orthodox combatant enters the ring with a 21-9-1 record. To 75, the 38-year-old increases his reach. Derrick Lewis scores critical strikes at a rate of 2.54 per minute, whereas Marcos Rogerio de Lima connects on 3.62 per minute. Rogerio de Lima lands 56% of the important blows he attempts, but Lewis only lands 50%. “The Black Beast” permits 2.59 major hits per minute, whereas “Pezao” can endure 2.83. Lewis also blocks 41% of the big blows his adversaries aim at him, while Rogerio de Lima blocks 51% of the shots.

Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima UFC 291 7/29/2023 Picks, Odds, and Prediction

Marcos Rogério de Lima won his past two fights and will want to keep it going against Lewis in the heavyweight matchup. In his most recent contest, de Lima defeated Waldo Cortes-Acosta unanimously. For a better understanding of who will prevail in their UFC 291 matchup, here’s an analysis of the two heavyweights’ statistics.

UFC 291 Derrick Lewis Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Opening Odds +155 -180
Record 26-11-0 (1 NC) 21-9-1
Average Fight Time 8:48 6:32
Height 6’3″ 6’1″
Weight 260 lbs 253 lbs
Reach 79″ 75″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.54 3.62
Striking Accuracy 50% 56%


Derrick Lewis is less productive as a wrestler than at takedowns, averaging 0.59 takedowns every 15 minutes. Lewis successfully forces his opponent to the ground on 28% of his attempts and blocks 52% of all attempted takedowns on him. 47% of Rogerio de Lima’s takedown attempts result in a takedown, and 59% of his opponent’s takedown attempts are blocked. Lewis is less skilled in finishing off opponents, averaging 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes, compared to Rogerio de Lima’s 0.5 finishes every three rounds.

The last time Derrick Lewis entered the Octagon, he battled Serghei Spivac and lost by arm triangle in round one. Spivac delivered 54 total blows in that fight, 36 of which connected. Lewis finished the evening having connected on 0 of his 3 attempts. Spivac had a 57% success rate with big strikes, landing 12 of 21 attempts. Of the 21 important hits he made, 12 were directed toward the head.

On the other hand, Lewis stuck 0 of 3 and hit 0% of his huge blows. Out of all the important blows launched, he hit on 0 of 2 to the head. Lewis connected 33% of the big hits from a distance, whereas Spivac connected 0%.

In his last battle, Marcos Rogerio de Lima faced Waldo Cortes-Acosta, and in round three, he prevailed by unanimous decision. Lima joined on 94% of the important blows he attempted from a distance, whilst Cortes-Acosta connected on 96% of the significant strikes he attempted. Lima connected on 59 of 76 of his significant blows, landing 77% of them. Of the 31 important head-directed strikes he ultimately made, 20 were successful. In the bout, Cortes-Acosta ultimately connected on 82 important 150 blows. 54 of his 116 important blows were accurate, with 54 being to the head. Cortes-Acosta connected on 88 of the 156 total strikes he let fly, and Lima connected on 76 of the 95 total strikes he tried.

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Although they are both great fighters, it is clear that Derrick Lewis will be under a lot of pressure to exit the most difficult part of his career. Even though Ciryl Gane defeated Derrick in their bout for the interim heavyweight title in 2021, “The Black Beast” still prevailed.

Marcos Rogério de Lima, his rival, has had many highs and lows throughout his career. ‘Pezao’, who competed in Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, has had trouble maintaining consistency since joining the UFC. He’ll be confident when he fights Lewis in the Octagon, though. Four of the Brazilian’s previous five fights have ended in victories.

In Salt Lake City, Utah, the battle is taking place at a greater altitude. That comes into play in the final fight round. Even if this fight consists of three rounds, the heavyweights may still have problems with fatigue.

Prediction:  Marcos Rogerio de Lima will win -180

Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah

Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023

Main Card: 10:00 PM ET

Prelims: 8:00 PM ET

Watch on: ESPN and ESPN+


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