Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz 3/25/2023 Analysis, Tips an Odds
On Saturday, March 25, 2023, the upcoming UFC San Antonio event will feature a featherweight showdown between Daniel “The Pit” Pineda and Tucker “Top Gun” Lutz. The opening money line currently has Pineda priced at +210, while Lutz is coming in at -275, indicating that the latter is the favorite to win the bout.
Pineda, who is 37 years old, boasts a professional record of 27-14-0 (3 NC) and weighs in at 145 lbs. He stands at 5’7″ and fights in the orthodox stance, with a reach of 69″. Meanwhile, Lutz, who is 28 years old, weighs in at the same weight and stands 5’8″ tall. He also fights in the orthodox stance and has a longer reach than Pineda, measuring 72″. Lutz has a professional record of 12-2-0.
When it comes to significant strikes, Pineda lands 3.35 per minute, while Lutz connects on 4.10 significant strikes per minute. Pineda has a significant strike accuracy of 48%, while Lutz has a higher accuracy rate of 51%. On the defensive end, Pineda allows 2.97 significant strikes per minute, while Lutz absorbs 3.02. Pineda also has a higher significant strike defense rate of 45%, compared to Lutz’s 44%.
In terms of grappling, Pineda is not as skilled as Lutz, taking his opponents to the mat 1.42 times per 15 minutes. Pineda finishes his takedown attempts on 22% of his tries and stops 42% of all takedown attempts against him. On the other hand, Lutz finishes his takedown attempts on 66% of his tries and stuffs 70% of all takedown attempts against him. When it comes to submission attempts, Pineda has the upper hand, going for 1.6 finishes per 15 minutes, while Lutz goes for 0.2 finishes per 3 rounds.
Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz 3/25/2023 Analysis, Tips an Odds
Daniel Pineda’s previous fight was against Andre Fili, which ended in a no-contest due to an eye poke in the second round. During the match, Fili landed 44 of his 78 total strikes, while Pineda landed 43 of his 62 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Fili had a 50% success rate, connecting on 34 of 67, with 29 of those being significant strikes to the head. On the other hand, Pineda landed 15 of his 34 significant strikes, resulting in a 44% success rate, with 7 of those being significant strikes to the head. The majority of the significant strikes landed by Fili (82%) and Pineda (100%) were achieved from a distance.
Tucker Lutz’s last fight was against Pat Sabatini, which he lost via unanimous decision in the third round. Sabatini was able to land 75% of his significant strikes from a distance, while Lutz landed 64% of his significant strikes attempted at a distance. Lutz connected on 17 of his 35 significant strikes, resulting in a 48% success rate, with 5 of those being significant strikes to the head. In contrast, Sabatini landed 16 of his 24 significant strikes directed at the head, with 9 of those out of 17 significant strikes thrown in total. Sabatini let go of 132 total strikes and landed 111, while Lutz attempted 55 total strikes and landed 36.
Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz Prediction: Tucker Lutz
Date: Saturday, March 25, 2023
Venue: AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas
TV: ESPN
Odds: Daniel Pineda -210, Tucker Lutz -275
