UFC FIGHT NIGHT 237 Betting Prediction: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 2/24/2024
As excitement for UFC Fight Night 237 grows, fans and bettors alike turn their focus towards an exhilarating Flyweight contest that epitomizes mixed martial arts. Set against Mexico City Arena’s vibrant backdrop, Brandon Moreno meets dynamic Brandon Royval in an epic battle of wills as much as skill. This analysis offers MMA betting picks and predictions, dissecting both fighters’ journey to this point before providing insight into what fans should expect when the cage door closes on Saturday.
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Game Info
| When: | Saturday, February 24, 2024, at 10:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Federal District, Mexico |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Brandon Moreno Analysis
Brandon Moreno, known as “The Assassin Baby,” brings an impressive record of 21 wins, 7 losses, and 2 draws into this fight. Moreno relies on a high-output striking offense and strong wrestling grappling attack. The stats show Moreno lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute with solid 43% accuracy, indicating he maintains active footwork and pace in exchanges. Though not a lethal knockout artist, Moreno peppers opponents with steady volume to set up his wrestling entries. His offensive grappling metrics are where Moreno truly excels, averaging 1.73 takedowns per round with a 45% success rate.
Once on the mat, Moreno is an adept submission threat as well, attempting a finish 0.5 times per round. Combined with respectable 64% takedown defense, Moreno possesses the well-rounded skill set necessary to implement his fight strategy. Though coming off a disappointing decision loss, Moreno’s statistical advantages on paper, particularly regarding his wrestling control, make him a dangerous matchup for any flyweight foe, including the battle-tested Royval.
Brandon Royval Analysis
Brandon Royval, “Raw Dawg,” enters the fray with a record of 15 wins and 7 losses. As a striker, Royval truly lives up to his “Raw Dawg” moniker, landing significant shots at a 3.8 per minute clip but absorbing his share in return at 3.05 per minute. This indicates Royval is willing to take risks in order to land a fight-altering offense, reflected by his only 43% striking defense rate. While unlikely to match Moreno in volume, Royval compensates with greater stopping power and has proven dangerous to trade with at close range.
If he can neutralize Moreno’s offensive wrestling, Royval also poses a very real submission threat, attempting 1.5 submissions per round. Though possessing just a 40% takedown defense rate, Royval is aggressive hunting for chokes and arm locks from his back if taken down. Overall Royval’s finishing ability and submission arsenal make him a live underdog against the more proven Moreno. He may struggle if consistently pressed against the cage or mat. But by creating extended striking exchanges and scrambles, Royval gives himself an avenue to land a fight-ending shot or lock up a submission.
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Stats
| Moreno | Royval | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 21-7-2 | 15-7-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:34 | 8:47 |
| Height | 5′ 7″ | 5′ 9″ |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 70″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 43% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Defense | 56% | 45% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 1.73 | 0.43 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 45% | 66% |
| Takedown Defense | 64% | 40% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Betting Picks
This main event clash contains plenty of unknowns, as both men aim to rebound from disappointing losses. Moreno seems likely to pursue takedowns and try to control Royval on the mat. However, Royval’s submission skills mean the ground may not be as safe as Moreno hopes. Ultimately, while Moreno has more ways to win, bettors can likely get better value backing Royval as a substantial underdog.
Royval’s explosive power and submission grappling give him a realistic avenue to victory if he can stuff Moreno’s takedown attempts. The plus-money odds on Royval represent solid value based on his evident skills. Moreno has more experience in big spots but look for Royval to make it a fight by creating scrambles and chaos at key moments.
Free Pick: Brandon Royval +235
Royval’s significant underdog price makes him the more attractive play. Backing the Raw Dawg moneyline at over 2-1 odds compensates bettors for the risks he poses stylistically to the favored Moreno. Regardless of the outcome, fight fans are in for a highly competitive bout between two of the UFC’s top flyweight contenders. Be sure to lock in your wagers at your top online sportsbook ahead of Saturday’s event.
